STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice
BTC/USDTETH/USDT

MA Cross · BTC/USDT

Golden cross in, death cross out. The strategy everyone has heard of.

Total return
1370.7%
10,000 → 147,068
vs buy & hold
+840.8%
over the same period 529.9%
Max drawdown
51.4%
10,000 → 5,173
Longest underwater
817
817 days · 93% of the period
Settings that beat it
14 / 15
of 15 parameter settings tested
Win rate
42%
95% CI 26%–59% · n=31
This beat simply buying and holding.

Over 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 1370.7% against 529.9% for buying once on the first day and never touching it — 840.8% better. Across the whole parameter grid, 14 of 15 settings beat the benchmark; the median setting returned 929.8%.

It spent 817 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 93% of the whole period under water.

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 31 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 26%–59% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 42% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

63 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (14×) and max drawdown (51.4%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-44.7%-22.4%-6.9% 9.6%64.6% 168.1%466.1%34%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 929.8%, best 3192.0%, worst 529.7%. 14 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

MA Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

fast 5fast 10fast 20fast 50
slow 501404%1180%639%·
slow 1003192%951%868%580%
slow 1502830%930%839%530%
slow 200977%1108%671%691%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-45%-21%190%9%-34%44%13%12%25%
Max DD49%26%18%24%44%19%30%18%22%
Trades422242222

Recent closed trades

ClosedP&L (USDT)Held
2026-06-03 -10707.74 53 bars
2026-04-07 +4686.98 8 bars
2026-02-02 -22263.53 20 bars
2025-10-26 -3762.95 26 bars
2025-08-31 +18305.89 127 bars
2025-02-18 -8862.87 28 bars
2025-01-10 +39336.41 105 bars
2024-08-13 -12175.94 14 bars
2024-06-28 -13736.50 31 bars
2024-04-26 +29994.13 74 bars
2024-01-29 +30184.17 114 bars
2023-08-11 -2721.86 44 bars
2023-05-15 -165.67 57 bars
2023-03-14 +17354.74 62 bars
2022-11-15 -10837.39 13 bars
2022-09-01 -8023.78 28 bars
2022-04-24 -7683.43 30 bars
2022-03-24 +2778.02 7 bars
2021-12-01 -847.87 50 bars
2021-09-27 +6362.60 55 bars
2021-05-03 +51203.72 197 bars
2020-09-13 -769.79 47 bars
2020-07-01 +2360.32 66 bars
2020-03-09 -246.32 56 bars
2019-11-25 -3244.76 15 bars

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 기술적 분석
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“지표 교차를 매매 시점으로 보는 해석이 통용되나, 이는 관행적 해석이며 실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Formulas

Simple moving average
SMAₙ(t) = (1/n) · Σ Cₜ₋ᵢ
Simple mean of the last n closes
Entry / exit
fast > slow → long ; fast < slow → flat
Signal on close, fill on the next open

Established

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. 기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"fast":20,"slow":60}
Fees0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hashf57a41d552668c4e

Other strategies · BTC/USDT

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