STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice
BTC/USDTETH/USDT

MA Cross · ETH/USDT

Golden cross in, death cross out. The strategy everyone has heard of.

Total return
1336.2%
10,000 → 143,621
vs buy & hold
+1060.5%
over the same period 275.8%
Max drawdown
69.3%
10,000 → 4,069
Longest underwater
1527
1527 days · 94% of the period
Settings that beat it
15 / 15
of 15 parameter settings tested
Win rate
58%
95% CI 39%–76% · n=24
This beat simply buying and holding.

Over 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 1336.2% against 275.8% for buying once on the first day and never touching it — 1060.5% better. All 15 parameter settings tested beat the benchmark; the median returned 1588.0%.

It spent 1527 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 94% of the whole period under water.

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 24 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 39%–76% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 58% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

49 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (12×) and max drawdown (69.3%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-46.4%-30.6%-16.0% 8.9%41.5% 84.2%833.3%36%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 1588.0%, best 2857.5%, worst 455.7%. 15 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

MA Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

fast 5fast 10fast 20fast 50
slow 502858%2380%1616%·
slow 1002036%1426%1185%456%
slow 1502408%2429%2113%975%
slow 2001588%1580%892%674%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-15%-25%254%8%-42%23%8%55%52%
Max DD38%26%30%31%48%19%23%21%16%
Trades111232221

Recent closed trades

ClosedP&L (USDT)Held
2026-05-25 +4688.58 57 bars
2026-02-01 -24856.21 21 bars
2025-10-03 +40826.95 82 bars
2025-07-02 +1731.02 53 bars
2025-01-06 +20338.74 76 bars
2024-10-14 +494.40 7 bars
2024-07-04 -9234.30 38 bars
2024-04-16 +9140.93 63 bars
2024-02-07 +13922.57 102 bars
2023-08-11 -2042.99 37 bars
2023-05-16 +233.44 55 bars
2023-03-12 +4418.85 61 bars
2022-11-21 -13659.33 17 bars
2022-09-08 -3261.29 41 bars
2022-05-01 -12012.04 34 bars
2021-12-12 +3516.68 57 bars
2021-09-29 +1679.89 55 bars
2021-06-04 +54288.87 223 bars
2020-09-21 +4488.19 149 bars
2020-03-15 -1804.77 57 bars
2019-11-25 -2186.73 12 bars
2019-07-20 +2441.09 146 bars
2019-01-31 -2360.97 23 bars
2018-06-05 -1470.66 36 bars

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 기술적 분석
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“지표 교차를 매매 시점으로 보는 해석이 통용되나, 이는 관행적 해석이며 실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Formulas

Simple moving average
SMAₙ(t) = (1/n) · Σ Cₜ₋ᵢ
Simple mean of the last n closes
Entry / exit
fast > slow → long ; fast < slow → flat
Signal on close, fill on the next open

Established

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. 기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"fast":20,"slow":60}
Fees0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash3a953770548cfa53

Other strategies · ETH/USDT

Buy & HoldMartingaleGridDCAMA CrossEMA CrossRSI ReversionMACD CrossBollinger ReversionDonchian BreakoutSupertrendStochastic CrossParabolic SAR