STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice
BTC/USDTETH/USDT

Supertrend · ETH/USDT

Follow the ATR trailing band. Few trades, long holds, brutal in chop.

Total return
1792.0%
10,000 → 189,196
vs buy & hold
+1516.2%
over the same period 275.8%
Max drawdown
53.3%
10,000 → 5,948
Longest underwater
926
926 days · 97% of the period
Settings that beat it
16 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
53%
95% CI 37%–69% · n=34
This beat simply buying and holding.

Over 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 1792.0% against 275.8% for buying once on the first day and never touching it — 1516.2% better. All 16 parameter settings tested beat the benchmark; the median returned 1293.1%.

It spent 926 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 97% of the whole period under water.

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 34 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 37%–69% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 53% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

69 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (18×) and max drawdown (53.3%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-47.2%-23.0%-10.0% 16.0%74.3% 405.0%798.1%31%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 1293.1%, best 4833.8%, worst 407.7%. 16 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

Supertrend run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

length 7length 10length 14length 21
mult 22920%1108%1116%408%
mult 2.53339%4834%2210%1669%
mult 32101%1792%1152%1409%
mult 41293%860%1235%1189%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-27%16%418%125%-31%22%-27%-2%41%
Max DD46%44%31%42%42%30%53%35%20%
Trades342454742

Recent closed trades

ClosedP&L (USDT)Held
2026-05-18 -3135.30 63 bars
2026-01-21 -17137.14 7 bars
2025-10-11 -32737.73 4 bars
2025-09-26 +50163.39 78 bars
2025-06-22 +4517.96 44 bars
2024-12-20 +18375.92 42 bars
2024-11-05 -15488.62 15 bars
2024-10-04 -15524.12 10 bars
2024-08-03 -22773.78 18 bars
2024-06-25 -15068.11 35 bars
2024-03-20 +26860.93 36 bars
2024-01-25 +30337.69 93 bars
2023-10-11 -12651.46 9 bars
2023-08-18 -16282.71 57 bars
2023-04-22 +13324.77 39 bars
2023-03-10 +10320.40 59 bars
2022-11-09 -11726.01 14 bars
2022-08-20 +20548.03 34 bars
2022-04-12 -5283.88 18 bars
2022-03-07 -27528.93 27 bars
2021-11-19 +7062.86 35 bars
2021-09-11 +41882.80 46 bars
2021-05-20 +20116.47 67 bars
2021-02-26 +55877.10 127 bars
2020-09-06 +8805.01 140 bars

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 기술적 분석
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“지표 교차를 매매 시점으로 보는 해석이 통용되나, 이는 관행적 해석이며 실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Formulas

Bands
basis = (H+L)/2 ; band = basis ± k·ATRₙ
The band ratchets in the direction of the trend and flips on a close through it

Established

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. 기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"length":10,"mult":3}
Fees0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hashe40b2dcdb7c0123b

Other strategies · ETH/USDT

Buy & HoldMartingaleGridDCAMA CrossEMA CrossRSI ReversionMACD CrossBollinger ReversionDonchian BreakoutSupertrendStochastic CrossParabolic SAR