STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice
BTC/USDTETH/USDT

Supertrend · BTC/USDT

Follow the ATR trailing band. Few trades, long holds, brutal in chop.

Total return
283.6%
10,000 → 38,365
vs buy & hold
-246.3%
over the same period 529.9%
Max drawdown
67.6%
10,000 → 3,236
Longest underwater
840
840 days · 98% of the period
Settings that beat it
10 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
39%
95% CI 26%–55% · n=38
This lost to simply buying and holding.

Over 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 283.6% while buying once on the first day and never touching it returned 529.9% — 246.3% worse. Across the whole parameter grid, 10 of 16 settings beat the benchmark; the median setting returned 599.2%.

It spent 840 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 98% of the whole period under water.

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 38 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 26%–55% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 39% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

77 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (5×) and max drawdown (67.6%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-63.0%-24.7%-8.1% 26.5%71.9% 149.5%310.0%32%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 599.2%, best 1205.3%, worst 281.9%. 10 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

Supertrend run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

length 7length 10length 14length 21
mult 21205%650%503%607%
mult 2.5808%599%757%393%
mult 3890%284%282%476%
mult 4870%515%983%598%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-63%104%262%48%-51%98%27%-18%16%
Max DD64%44%19%33%53%20%41%28%21%
Trades532463653

Recent closed trades

ClosedP&L (USDT)Held
2026-05-23 +351.31 39 bars
2026-03-30 -3041.19 25 bars
2026-01-21 -2652.09 7 bars
2025-10-11 -1911.37 9 bars
2025-08-22 +304.87 43 bars
2025-06-23 +2617.68 61 bars
2025-03-11 -6879.88 8 bars
2025-02-25 -5716.07 38 bars
2024-12-24 +15551.37 95 bars
2024-09-06 -4431.82 13 bars
2024-08-04 -2458.86 19 bars
2024-06-22 -4432.70 32 bars
2024-03-20 +11265.00 40 bars
2024-01-23 +8999.79 113 bars
2023-08-18 -1461.60 58 bars
2023-04-22 +2647.71 39 bars
2023-03-09 +3553.24 56 bars
2022-11-09 -2128.75 13 bars
2022-09-21 -2913.75 10 bars
2022-08-20 -2818.73 31 bars
2022-04-09 -1368.49 38 bars
2022-02-22 -4982.44 14 bars
2021-11-19 +2911.61 44 bars
2021-09-11 +5956.10 47 bars
2021-04-22 -3186.01 39 bars

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 기술적 분석
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“지표 교차를 매매 시점으로 보는 해석이 통용되나, 이는 관행적 해석이며 실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Formulas

Bands
basis = (H+L)/2 ; band = basis ± k·ATRₙ
The band ratchets in the direction of the trend and flips on a close through it

Established

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. 기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"length":10,"mult":3}
Fees0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash24c492b32c12d052

Other strategies · BTC/USDT

Buy & HoldMartingaleGridDCAMA CrossEMA CrossRSI ReversionMACD CrossBollinger ReversionDonchian BreakoutSupertrendStochastic CrossParabolic SAR