MACD Cross · Gold (PAXG)

Enter when the histogram turns positive, exit when it turns negative.

Total return

34.3%

10,000 → 13,431

vs buy & hold

-84.3%

over the same period 118.6%

Max drawdown

26.3%

10,000 → 8,522

Longest underwater

1059

1059 days · 95% of the period

Settings that beat it

0 / 16

of 16 parameter settings tested

Win rate

42%

95% CI 32%–53% · n=79

This lost to simply buying and holding.

Over 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 34.3% while buying once on the first day and never touching it returned 118.6% — 84.3% worse. Not one of the 16 parameter settings tested beat the benchmark. The median setting returned 32.1%.

It spent 1059 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 95% of the whole period under water.

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 79 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 32%–53% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 42% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

159 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (1×) and max drawdown (26.3%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-10.8%	-0.5%	2.8%	8.9%	12.7%	17.2%	25.7%	15%

Does it survive outside its best case?

The numbers above are one market on one timeframe. A rule that only works there did not work — the market did.

Timeframe

Same rules, same parameters, different candle size on Gold (PAXG).

Timeframe	Trades	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	13281	-74%	119%	-192%	no	515
1D ←	2214	34%	119%	-84%	no	79
1W	316	63%	123%	-60%	no	8

Market — 2 of 3

Same rules, same parameters, different asset — daily candles.

Market	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it
BTC/USDT	822%	530%	+292%	yes
ETH/USDT	535%	276%	+259%	yes
Gold (PAXG) ←	34%	119%	-84%	no

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 32.1%, best 58.6%, worst 24.6%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

MACD Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

	fast 8	fast 12	fast 16	fast 20
slow 21	33%	44%	32%	32%
slow 26	31%	34%	31%	27%
slow 34	37%	29%	31%	41%
slow 50	31%	25%	49%	59%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	2%	-0%	12%	11%	11%	-8%
Max DD	6%	10%	6%	7%	10%	20%
Trades	10	11	9	13	14	8

Recent closed trades

Closed	P&L (USDT)	Held
2026-08-29	+1144.85	38 bars
2026-07-17	-470.69	14 bars
2026-06-24	-310.56	1 bars
2026-06-21	-530.58	5 bars
2026-06-04	-261.61	4 bars
2026-05-16	-519.00	8 bars
2026-04-24	-51.39	23 bars
2026-03-05	+61.11	11 bars
2026-02-01	+955.24	22 bars
2025-12-30	+205.76	18 bars
2025-12-08	+181.24	13 bars
2025-11-21	-169.03	10 bars
2025-10-22	+781.71	22 bars
2025-09-29	-32.31	5 bars
2025-09-19	+950.43	26 bars
2025-08-13	-121.72	9 bars
2025-07-28	-46.14	16 bars
2025-06-20	-100.80	7 bars
2025-06-09	-237.44	6 bars
2025-06-01	-83.83	9 bars
2025-04-26	+141.34	14 bars
2025-04-05	-183.64	7 bars
2025-03-26	+64.92	12 bars
2025-02-16	+1027.70	51 bars
2024-12-19	-236.79	9 bars

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: MACD
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“Whether this produces profit is not addressed in that article.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The reference article flags that "divergence" carries three different meanings in MACD writing — the two averages spreading apart, the MACD-minus-signal histogram, and price disagreeing with the indicator. It also records that MACD is a lagging indicator: by the time it shows a trend, the trend is largely over. The 12/26/9 defaults are convention from a daily-chart era, not a derived optimum.

Formulas

MACD line

MACD = EMA₁₂ − EMA₂₆

The 12/26 pair is the conventional default

Signal & histogram

Signal = EMA₉(MACD) ; Hist = MACD − Signal

This site enters when the histogram turns positive

Established

MACD is the short-term exponential moving average minus the long-term one, conventionally the 12-day EMA minus the 26-day EMA. [1]
MACD is classified with RSI and Stochastic as an oscillator. [1]

Conventional reading

Crossovers of the MACD and signal lines are conventionally treated as trade timing; the reference article explicitly does not address whether this is profitable. [1]
The reference records MACD as a lagging indicator — by the time it shows a trend, that trend is largely complete. [1]
Filtering to cut false signals also increases missed profit; the two move together and cannot be tuned apart. [1]
The 12/26/9 settings are convention inherited from daily charts rather than a derived optimum — which is why the grid below sweeps them. [1]
The usefulness of technical analysis as a whole is contested by the efficient-market hypothesis. The reference article states the dispute without ruling on it — and neither does this page. What is below is one measurement, not a verdict. [1, 2]

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

Assumptions

Period	2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"fast":12,"slow":26,"signal":9}
Fees	0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital	10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test	365 bars × 62 start dates
Input hash	efe80ce3784933da

Other strategies · Gold (PAXG)

Buy & Hold Martingale Grid DCA MA Cross EMA Cross RSI Reversion MACD Cross Bollinger Reversion Donchian Breakout Supertrend Stochastic Cross Parabolic SAR