STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice
BTC/USDTETH/USDTGold (PAXG)

Grid · Gold (PAXG)

Buy the dips, sell the bounces inside a fixed band. Profitable in range, bleeds when the band breaks.

Total return
9.9%
10,000 → 10,986
vs buy & hold
-108.7%
over the same period 118.6%
Max drawdown
9.6%
10,000 → 9,133
Longest underwater
410
410 days · 62% of the period
Settings that beat it
0 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
100%
95% CI 87%–100% · n=26
This lost to simply buying and holding.

Over 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 9.9% while buying once on the first day and never touching it returned 118.6% — 108.7% worse. Not one of the 16 parameter settings tested beat the benchmark. The median setting returned 8.7%.

It spent 410 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 62% of the whole period under water.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

52 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (8×) and max drawdown (9.6%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-4.7%-3.2%-1.0% 2.1%2.8% 3.3%5.2%31%

Does it survive outside its best case?

The numbers above are one market on one timeframe. A rule that only works there did not work — the market did.

Timeframe

Same rules, same parameters, different candle size on Gold (PAXG).

TimeframeTradesReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itTrades
4H 13281 11% 119% -108% no29
1D ← 2214 10% 119% -109% no26
1W 316 8% 123% -115% no20

Market — 0 of 3

Same rules, same parameters, different asset — daily candles.

MarketReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat it
BTC/USDT 32% 530% -498% no
ETH/USDT 32% 276% -244% no
Gold (PAXG) 10% 119% -109% no

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 8.7%, best 13.7%, worst 2.6%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

Grid run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

levels 5levels 10levels 20levels 30
rangePct 0.156%12%11%3%
rangePct 0.255%10%12%5%
rangePct 0.45%9%14%7%
rangePct 0.67%9%12%9%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year202120222023202420252026
Return-3%-2%1%2%3%3%
Max DD7%8%3%1%1%5%
Trades6567819

Recent closed trades

ClosedP&L (USDT)Held
2024-08-13 +30.87
2024-08-02 +30.87
2024-05-15 +32.31
2024-04-15 +30.87
2024-04-13 +30.87
2024-04-12 +32.31
2024-04-03 +33.89
2024-03-20 +35.62
2024-03-05 +37.52
2023-12-03 +37.52
2023-10-27 +39.62
2023-05-04 +37.52
2023-03-17 +39.62
2023-03-11 +41.96
2023-01-11 +41.96
2022-11-11 +44.57
2022-08-02 +44.57
2022-03-06 +39.62
2022-02-24 +39.62
2022-02-12 +41.96
2021-11-16 +41.96
2021-05-16 +39.62
2021-05-09 +41.96
2021-01-05 +37.52
2021-01-02 +39.62

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 그리드 트레이딩
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The name "grid trading" has no regulator or encyclopaedia definition — the reference article establishes this explicitly. What does have one is the mechanism: the CFTC glossary defines Scale Down/Up as buying or selling at regular price intervals as the market declines or advances. Placing that ladder in both directions at once is an extension of that definition, not something the source describes.

Rule-based range trading, widely automated on FX and crypto venues. The name itself has no official definition. Also known as Range grid, ladder.

Formulas

Grid step
Δ = (upper − lower) / N
N = number of levels
Profit per round trip
π = q · Δ − fees
q = size per level
Break-even step
Δ > p · (2f + 2s)
Fees and slippage on both legs set a floor on grid spacing

Established

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. Glossary — Scale Down (or Up) — U.S. CFTC (en)
  2. 그리드 트레이딩 — Glowwiki (ko)

Assumptions

Period2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"rangePct":0.25,"levels":10,"allocPct":0.08}
Fees0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test365 bars × 62 start dates
Input hash2cfc1fb9b1015221

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