Martingale · Gold (PAXG)

Double down after every loss. Every closed trade is a winner by construction — that is what makes it dangerous.

Total return

12.3%

10,000 → 11,229

vs buy & hold

-106.3%

over the same period 118.6%

Max drawdown

3.5%

10,000 → 9,874

Longest underwater

155

155 days · 84% of the period

Settings that beat it

0 / 16

of 16 parameter settings tested

Win rate

100%

95% CI 96%–100% · n=94

This lost to simply buying and holding.

Over 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 12.3% while buying once on the first day and never touching it returned 118.6% — 106.3% worse. Not one of the 16 parameter settings tested beat the benchmark. The median setting returned 8.3%.

It spent 155 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 84% of the whole period under water.

94 trades, a 100% win rate — and it still lost to doing nothing clever. A martingale only closes a cycle at a profit, so the win rate is 100% by construction. It tells you nothing about risk. What it actually cost: 31× the opening order tied up at the worst moment, and 118.5% left on the table versus simply buying a fixed amount on a schedule.

Price & fills

Equity

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

227 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (31×) and max drawdown (3.5%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-1.4%	0.8%	1.1%	1.4%	1.9%	2.6%	4.0%	3%

Does it survive outside its best case?

The numbers above are one market on one timeframe. A rule that only works there did not work — the market did.

Timeframe

Same rules, same parameters, different candle size on Gold (PAXG).

Timeframe	Trades	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	13281	15%	119%	-104%	no	89
1D ←	2214	12%	119%	-106%	no	94
1W	316	7%	123%	-115%	no	65

Market — 0 of 3

Same rules, same parameters, different asset — daily candles.

Market	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it
BTC/USDT	87%	530%	-443%	no
ETH/USDT	110%	276%	-166%	no
Gold (PAXG) ←	12%	119%	-106%	no

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 8.3%, best 18.9%, worst 3.8%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

Martingale run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

	multiplier 1.5	multiplier 2	multiplier 2.5	multiplier 3
dropPct 0.03	17%	10%	15%	19%
dropPct 0.05	8%	12%	14%	19%
dropPct 0.08	6%	7%	8%	10%
dropPct 0.12	4%	4%	4%	5%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	3%
Max DD	2%	4%	0%	0%	0%	1%
Trades	9	7	11	16	26	19

Recent closed trades

Closed	P&L (USDT)	Held
2026-08-24	+5.70	step 1
2026-08-19	+5.70	step 1
2026-08-07	+17.09	step 2
2026-06-15	+85.45	step 4
2026-05-07	+17.09	step 2
2026-04-08	+5.70	step 1
2026-04-01	+85.45	step 4
2026-03-03	+17.09	step 2
2026-02-27	+5.70	step 1
2026-02-20	+5.70	step 1
2026-02-11	+5.70	step 1
2026-02-05	+17.09	step 2
2026-02-03	+17.09	step 2
2026-01-29	+17.09	step 2
2026-01-27	+5.70	step 1
2026-01-22	+5.70	step 1
2026-01-20	+5.70	step 1
2026-01-12	+5.70	step 1
2025-12-23	+5.70	step 1
2025-12-18	+5.70	step 1
2025-11-28	+5.70	step 1
2025-11-13	+5.70	step 1
2025-10-20	+5.70	step 1
2025-10-16	+5.70	step 1
2025-10-13	+5.70	step 1

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 마틴게일 (베팅 시스템)
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The capital formula C = s₁(mᴺ−1)/(m−1) — and the 1,023× figure at m=2 over 10 steps — is arithmetic that follows from the definition, not a figure quoted by a source. The reference article marks it as such.

18th-century French casino betting system. Also known as Doubling system, averaging down.

Formulas

Stake at step n

sₙ = s₁ · mⁿ⁻¹

m = multiplier (classically 2)

Capital to survive N steps

C = s₁ · (mᴺ − 1) / (m − 1)

At m=2, 10 steps needs 1,023× the opening stake

Average entry after N adds

P̄ = Σ(sᵢ) / Σ(sᵢ / pᵢ)

Cost basis falls, but exposure grows geometrically

Expected value per cycle

E = p·w − (1−p)·l − fees

With a fair-coin edge of zero, fees make E strictly negative

Established

The system doubles the stake after each loss so that one win recovers all prior losses plus the original stake. [1, 3]
Required capital grows geometrically with the number of consecutive losses. [1]
With finite capital and a finite table limit, the probability of eventual ruin approaches certainty — the gambler's ruin result. [1, 2]
The system does not change the expected value of the underlying bet; it redistributes outcomes into many small wins and rare large losses. [1, 3]

Conventional reading

Applied to markets it is usually implemented as averaging down: adding larger positions as price falls, exiting when the averaged entry is recovered. [3]
On spot without leverage the failure mode is typically capital lock-up rather than liquidation; forced liquidation requires margin. [3]
The capital requirement above is arithmetic that follows from the doubling rule, not a figure quoted by any source. [3]

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

Martingale (betting system) — Wikipedia (en)
Gambler's ruin — Wikipedia (en)
마틴게일 (베팅 시스템) — Glowwiki (ko)

Assumptions

Period	2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"basePct":0.02,"dropPct":0.05,"multiplier":2,"takeProfitPct":0.03,"maxSteps":10}
Fees	0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs
Starting capital	10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage
Rolling test	365 bars × 62 start dates
Input hash	c53abb0489404900

Other strategies · Gold (PAXG)

Buy & Hold Martingale Grid DCA MA Cross EMA Cross RSI Reversion MACD Cross Bollinger Reversion Donchian Breakout Supertrend Stochastic Cross Parabolic SAR