Golden cross in, death cross out. The strategy everyone has heard of.
Over 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 it returned 70.9% while buying once on the first day and never touching it returned 118.6% — 47.7% worse. Across the whole parameter grid, 3 of 15 settings beat the benchmark; the median setting returned 96.1%.
It spent 1346 days below its previous high at the longest stretch — 93% of the whole period under water.
35 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.
A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.
| Worst | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Best | Losing starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -11.1% | -5.2% | -2.5% | 1.2% | 20.4% | 32.5% | 49.9% | 44% |
The numbers above are one market on one timeframe. A rule that only works there did not work — the market did.
Same rules, same parameters, different candle size on Gold (PAXG).
| Timeframe | Trades | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | 13281 | 44% | 119% | -75% | no | 112 |
| 1D ← | 2214 | 71% | 119% | -48% | no | 17 |
| 1W | 316 | 94% | 123% | -29% | no | 1 |
Same rules, same parameters, different asset — daily candles.
| Market | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USDT | 1371% | 530% | +841% | yes |
| ETH/USDT | 1336% | 276% | +1060% | yes |
| Gold (PAXG) ← | 71% | 119% | -48% | no |
The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 96.1%, best 132.5%, worst 46.8%. 3 of them beat buy & hold.
MA Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.
| fast 5 | fast 10 | fast 20 | fast 50 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| slow 50 | 68% | 61% | 47% | · |
| slow 100 | 82% | 86% | 90% | 91% |
| slow 150 | 120% | 102% | 106% | 131% |
| slow 200 | 96% | 102% | 100% | 133% |
Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -5% | -7% | -1% | 18% | 28% | -0% |
| Max DD | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 8% |
| Trades | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Closed | P&L (USDT) | Held |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | +4436.79 | 219 bars |
| 2025-08-12 | -220.54 | 4 bars |
| 2025-07-11 | +2527.67 | 183 bars |
| 2024-11-18 | +686.14 | 125 bars |
| 2024-06-10 | +913.07 | 96 bars |
| 2024-01-23 | +176.92 | 91 bars |
| 2023-08-20 | -405.65 | 24 bars |
| 2023-05-27 | -27.21 | 69 bars |
| 2023-02-18 | +153.32 | 98 bars |
| 2022-09-02 | -477.33 | 17 bars |
| 2022-04-30 | -434.21 | 12 bars |
| 2022-04-16 | +778.08 | 101 bars |
| 2021-12-08 | -93.29 | 40 bars |
| 2021-09-22 | -269.61 | 18 bars |
| 2021-06-23 | -134.69 | 65 bars |
| 2021-01-26 | -397.78 | 29 bars |
| 2020-11-23 | -41.03 | 4 bars |
Listed as convention, not as established fact.
| Period | 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 |
| Parameters | {"fast":20,"slow":60} |
| Fees | 0.10% taker + 0.05% slippage, both legs |
| Starting capital | 10,000 USDT · long-only spot, no leverage |
| Rolling test | 365 bars × 62 start dates |
| Input hash | aa55023f450b70ac |