Buy the lower band, sell back at the mean. A range trade with an ugly tail risk.
Listed as convention, not as established fact.
Gold (PAXG) -123% · BTC/USDT -575%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.
| Market | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it | Max DD | Underwater | Grid beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USDT | -46% | 530% | -575% | no | 71% | 3118d | 0% |
| ETH/USDT | -53% | 276% | -329% | no | 80% | 3141d | 0% |
| Gold (PAXG) | -4% | 119% | -123% | no | 17% | 2039d | 0% |
All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.
Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.
102 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.
Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.
| Timeframe | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | -90% | 524% | -614% | no | 179 |
| 1D ← | -46% | 530% | -575% | no | 51 |
| 1W | 70% | 524% | -454% | no | 7 |
A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.
| Worst | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Best | Losing starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -44.3% | -34.7% | -25.3% | 3.5% | 15.7% | 32.1% | 53.3% | 47% |
The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median -17.3%, best 31.4%, worst -45.6%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.
Bollinger Reversion run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.
| length 10 | length 20 | length 30 | length 50 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mult 1.5 | -22% | -33% | -30% | -31% |
| mult 2 | -36% | -46% | -8% | -2% |
| mult 2.5 | 16% | 31% | 27% | -17% |
| mult 3 | 0% | 26% | -14% | -27% |
Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).
| Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -42% | 11% | -21% | 18% | -28% | 44% | 16% | 16% | -23% |
| Max DD | 55% | 24% | 49% | 26% | 45% | 10% | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Trades | 7 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Entered | Entry | Exited | Exit | Held | Size | P&L (USDT) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 59,824.54 | 2026-07-04 | 62,551.97 | 8 bars | 5,215.89 | +226.9 | +4.3% |
| 2026-05-23 | 75,577.27 | 2026-06-21 | 64,265.86 | 29 bars | 6,146.22 | -930.33 | -15.1% |
| 2026-02-01 | 78,780.47 | 2026-03-03 | 68,795.64 | 30 bars | 7,052.35 | -906.14 | -12.8% |
| 2025-12-16 | 86,475.3 | 2025-12-31 | 88,441.26 | 15 bars | 6,909.39 | +142.96 | +2.1% |
| 2025-11-05 | 101,547.98 | 2025-12-03 | 91,232.24 | 28 bars | 7,706.04 | -796.65 | -10.3% |
| 2025-09-26 | 109,048.99 | 2025-09-30 | 114,254.81 | 4 bars | 7,369.65 | +336.39 | +4.6% |
| 2025-08-26 | 110,167.04 | 2025-09-09 | 112,009.2 | 14 bars | 7,262.96 | +106.69 | +1.5% |
| 2025-08-01 | 115,821.95 | 2025-08-08 | 117,413.28 | 7 bars | 7,178.87 | +84.09 | +1.2% |
| 2025-06-06 | 101,559.44 | 2025-06-10 | 110,207.89 | 4 bars | 6,628.76 | +550.11 | +8.3% |
| 2025-04-07 | 78,469.21 | 2025-04-12 | 83,382.12 | 5 bars | 6,250.68 | +378.08 | +6.0% |
| 2025-02-25 | 91,598.66 | 2025-03-03 | 94,222.86 | 6 bars | 6,088.75 | +161.92 | +2.7% |
| 2025-02-05 | 97,812.02 | 2025-02-21 | 98,255.86 | 16 bars | 6,073.39 | +15.37 | +0.3% |
| 2024-09-07 | 53,989.95 | 2024-09-14 | 60,467.74 | 7 bars | 5,433.61 | +639.77 | +11.8% |
| 2024-08-03 | 61,529.09 | 2024-08-22 | 61,125.45 | 19 bars | 5,480.44 | -46.83 | -0.9% |
| 2024-06-15 | 66,077.01 | 2024-07-15 | 60,767.51 | 30 bars | 5,971.22 | -490.78 | -8.2% |
| 2024-05-02 | 58,394.15 | 2024-05-05 | 63,860.08 | 3 bars | 5,471.06 | +500.16 | +9.1% |
| 2024-04-14 | 63,956.48 | 2024-04-23 | 66,785.91 | 9 bars | 5,249.77 | +221.3 | +4.2% |
| 2023-08-17 | 28,744.88 | 2023-08-30 | 27,702.48 | 13 bars | 5,458.21 | -208.44 | -3.8% |
| 2023-07-25 | 29,191.09 | 2023-08-09 | 29,755.52 | 15 bars | 5,365.39 | +92.82 | +1.7% |
| 2023-06-15 | 25,141.16 | 2023-06-20 | 26,830.93 | 5 bars | 5,037.56 | +327.84 | +6.5% |
| 2023-06-06 | 25,741.06 | 2023-06-07 | 27,216.45 | 1 bars | 4,774.01 | +263.54 | +5.5% |
| 2023-03-10 | 20,372.39 | 2023-03-14 | 24,100.21 | 4 bars | 4,043.65 | +730.37 | +18.1% |
| 2023-02-10 | 21,808.73 | 2023-02-16 | 24,310.71 | 6 bars | 3,634.75 | +408.9 | +11.3% |
| 2022-11-09 | 18,554.65 | 2022-12-01 | 17,156.95 | 22 bars | 3,938.73 | -303.98 | -7.7% |
| 2022-08-20 | 20,844.81 | 2022-09-10 | 21,350.94 | 21 bars | 3,853.06 | +85.67 | +2.2% |
| 2022-06-13 | 26,587.82 | 2022-07-07 | 20,554.23 | 24 bars | 4,994.08 | -1,141.02 | -22.9% |
| 2022-05-06 | 36,571.25 | 2022-05-31 | 31,718.36 | 25 bars | 5,769.7 | -775.62 | -13.4% |
| 2022-04-12 | 39,550.22 | 2022-05-05 | 39,670.15 | 23 bars | 5,763.77 | +5.93 | +0.1% |
| 2022-01-06 | 43,472.87 | 2022-02-05 | 41,550.91 | 30 bars | 6,042.45 | -278.68 | -4.6% |
| 2021-11-19 | 56,920.07 | 2021-12-24 | 50,813.4 | 35 bars | 6,782.17 | -739.72 | -10.9% |
| 2021-09-22 | 40,754.46 | 2021-10-02 | 48,117.53 | 10 bars | 5,755.84 | +1,026.33 | +17.8% |
| 2021-07-17 | 31,399.55 | 2021-07-24 | 33,617.28 | 7 bars | 5,386.89 | +368.95 | +6.9% |
| 2021-06-22 | 31,629.93 | 2021-06-30 | 35,893.76 | 8 bars | 4,756.48 | +630.41 | +13.3% |
| 2021-05-16 | 46,786.37 | 2021-06-04 | 39,227.16 | 19 bars | 5,684.43 | -927.95 | -16.3% |
| 2021-04-23 | 51,716.8 | 2021-05-01 | 57,668.4 | 8 bars | 5,107.98 | +576.45 | +11.3% |
| 2020-09-04 | 10,143.36 | 2020-09-16 | 10,779.84 | 12 bars | 4,816.01 | +291.97 | +6.1% |
| 2020-08-26 | 11,324.08 | 2020-08-31 | 11,705.31 | 5 bars | 4,668.49 | +147.53 | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-26 | 9,321.14 | 2020-03-25 | 6,741.32 | 28 bars | 6,467.98 | -1,799.5 | -27.8% |
| 2019-12-17 | 6,894.89 | 2019-12-23 | 7,496.96 | 6 bars | 5,960.45 | +507.53 | +8.5% |
| 2019-11-16 | 8,475.86 | 2019-12-08 | 7,483.57 | 22 bars | 6,764.3 | -803.85 | -11.9% |
Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.
| Period | 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 |
| Parameters | {"length":20,"mult":2} |
| Rolling test | 365 bars × 95 start dates |
| Input hash | b5ed9e20a715a0ef |
110 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.
Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.
| Timeframe | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | -90% | 271% | -362% | no | 32 |
| 1D ← | -53% | 276% | -329% | no | 55 |
| 1W | 199% | 271% | -72% | no | 8 |
A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.
| Worst | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Best | Losing starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -74.5% | -44.8% | -28.3% | 0.8% | 32.4% | 75.3% | 113.4% | 45% |
The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median -79.4%, best 0.0%, worst -91.8%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.
Bollinger Reversion run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.
| length 10 | length 20 | length 30 | length 50 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mult 1.5 | -92% | -91% | -90% | -86% |
| mult 2 | -90% | -53% | -90% | -79% |
| mult 2.5 | -72% | -65% | -84% | -68% |
| mult 3 | 0% | -21% | -54% | -56% |
Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).
| Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -72% | -9% | 75% | 116% | -18% | 35% | -2% | 4% | -44% |
| Max DD | 79% | 42% | 17% | 24% | 49% | 10% | 30% | 30% | 52% |
| Trades | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
| Entered | Entry | Exited | Exit | Held | Size | P&L (USDT) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 2,225.76 | 2026-06-16 | 1,795.24 | 31 bars | 5,865.54 | -1,144 | -19.5% |
| 2026-01-21 | 2,941.35 | 2026-02-26 | 2,056.45 | 36 bars | 8,406.3 | -2,540.76 | -30.2% |
| 2025-11-04 | 3,605.64 | 2025-12-03 | 2,994.57 | 29 bars | 10,141.94 | -1,735.65 | -17.1% |
| 2025-09-26 | 3,876.29 | 2025-10-02 | 4,345.86 | 6 bars | 9,064.22 | +1,077.72 | +11.9% |
| 2025-06-22 | 2,296.87 | 2025-06-30 | 2,498.84 | 8 bars | 8,348.27 | +715.95 | +8.6% |
| 2025-06-06 | 2,415.23 | 2025-06-10 | 2,678.79 | 4 bars | 7,541.96 | +806.31 | +10.7% |
| 2025-04-07 | 1,581.56 | 2025-04-23 | 1,755.37 | 16 bars | 6,808.78 | +733.18 | +10.8% |
| 2025-02-25 | 2,514.78 | 2025-03-25 | 2,080.16 | 28 bars | 8,247.85 | -1,439.07 | -17.4% |
| 2025-02-03 | 2,871.11 | 2025-02-21 | 2,736.67 | 18 bars | 8,670.37 | -422.51 | -4.9% |
| 2025-01-29 | 3,079.26 | 2025-02-01 | 3,299.34 | 3 bars | 8,108.22 | +562.15 | +6.9% |
| 2024-12-20 | 3,418.72 | 2025-01-04 | 3,607.2 | 15 bars | 7,699.94 | +408.27 | +5.3% |
| 2024-08-28 | 2,458.56 | 2024-09-20 | 2,463.98 | 23 bars | 7,698.39 | +1.55 | +0.0% |
| 2024-08-03 | 2,991.1 | 2024-08-22 | 2,629.39 | 19 bars | 8,774.95 | -1,076.55 | -12.3% |
| 2024-06-12 | 3,499.08 | 2024-07-15 | 3,243.58 | 33 bars | 9,485.11 | -710.17 | -7.5% |
| 2024-04-14 | 3,008.51 | 2024-04-28 | 3,253.92 | 14 bars | 8,787.31 | +697.8 | +7.9% |
| 2024-03-20 | 3,160.23 | 2024-04-01 | 3,643.47 | 12 bars | 7,637.1 | +1,150.21 | +15.1% |
| 2023-09-12 | 1,552.62 | 2023-09-16 | 1,640.48 | 4 bars | 7,242.53 | +394.57 | +5.5% |
| 2023-08-17 | 1,808.71 | 2023-08-30 | 1,728.55 | 13 bars | 7,593.6 | -351.07 | -4.6% |
| 2023-06-11 | 1,752.4 | 2023-06-21 | 1,791.09 | 10 bars | 7,444.41 | +149.19 | +2.0% |
| 2023-05-12 | 1,795.21 | 2023-05-24 | 1,853.13 | 12 bars | 7,226.15 | +218.26 | +3.0% |
| 2023-03-10 | 1,438.04 | 2023-03-14 | 1,672.6 | 4 bars | 6,225.2 | +1,000.95 | +16.1% |
| 2023-02-11 | 1,513.81 | 2023-02-16 | 1,674.08 | 5 bars | 5,640.47 | +584.73 | +10.4% |
| 2022-12-17 | 1,167.4 | 2023-01-03 | 1,213.38 | 17 bars | 5,437.59 | +202.87 | +3.7% |
| 2022-11-10 | 1,103.28 | 2022-11-30 | 1,215.88 | 20 bars | 4,943.91 | +493.69 | +10.0% |
| 2022-09-19 | 1,335.18 | 2022-10-05 | 1,360.82 | 16 bars | 4,860.46 | +83.45 | +1.7% |
| 2022-06-12 | 1,533.66 | 2022-07-05 | 1,150.43 | 23 bars | 6,492.5 | -1,632.04 | -25.1% |
| 2022-05-09 | 2,520.97 | 2022-05-31 | 1,997.78 | 22 bars | 8,209.19 | -1,716.69 | -20.9% |
| 2022-04-27 | 2,811.08 | 2022-05-05 | 2,939.18 | 8 bars | 7,867.14 | +342.05 | +4.3% |
| 2021-12-30 | 3,632 | 2022-02-05 | 2,993.49 | 37 bars | 9,564.29 | -1,697.15 | -17.7% |
| 2021-12-11 | 3,900.26 | 2021-12-24 | 4,109.35 | 13 bars | 9,095.8 | +468.48 | +5.1% |
| 2021-11-19 | 3,998.9 | 2021-11-26 | 4,522.22 | 7 bars | 8,059.32 | +1,036.48 | +12.9% |
| 2021-09-21 | 2,978.81 | 2021-10-02 | 3,308.26 | 11 bars | 7,271.28 | +788.04 | +10.8% |
| 2021-06-20 | 2,166.42 | 2021-07-01 | 2,274.54 | 11 bars | 6,939.51 | +331.77 | +4.8% |
| 2021-05-20 | 2,440.14 | 2021-06-04 | 2,855.82 | 15 bars | 5,941.29 | +998.22 | +16.8% |
| 2021-03-26 | 1,586.62 | 2021-03-30 | 1,815.85 | 4 bars | 5,201.67 | +739.62 | +14.2% |
| 2021-02-26 | 1,482.82 | 2021-03-08 | 1,725.6 | 10 bars | 4,478.79 | +722.88 | +16.1% |
| 2020-09-24 | 320.88 | 2020-10-10 | 364.83 | 16 bars | 3,947.16 | +531.63 | +13.5% |
| 2020-09-06 | 335.21 | 2020-09-18 | 389.16 | 12 bars | 3,406.78 | +540.38 | +15.9% |
| 2020-06-28 | 221.05 | 2020-07-07 | 241.48 | 9 bars | 3,124.82 | +281.96 | +9.0% |
| 2020-03-13 | 107.72 | 2020-03-31 | 132.02 | 18 bars | 2,554.77 | +570.04 | +22.3% |
Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.
| Period | 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23 |
| Parameters | {"length":20,"mult":2} |
| Rolling test | 365 bars × 95 start dates |
| Input hash | 885020aa21bc9234 |
62 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.
Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.
| Timeframe | Return | Buy & hold | vs B&H | Beat it | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | -38% | 119% | -157% | no | 243 |
| 1D ← | -4% | 119% | -123% | no | 31 |
| 1W | 8% | 123% | -115% | no | 2 |
A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.
| Worst | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Best | Losing starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8.4% | -5.4% | -3.9% | -0.7% | 2.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 53% |
The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 0.0%, best 30.7%, worst -11.9%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.
Bollinger Reversion run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.
| length 10 | length 20 | length 30 | length 50 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mult 1.5 | -12% | -11% | 3% | 20% |
| mult 2 | -11% | -4% | 8% | 23% |
| mult 2.5 | -8% | -0% | 17% | 31% |
| mult 3 | 0% | -2% | 13% | 26% |
Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -2% | -5% | -3% | 2% | 7% | -5% |
| Max DD | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 9% |
| Trades | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Entered | Entry | Exited | Exit | Held | Size | P&L (USDT) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | 4,323.76 | 2026-07-04 | 4,166.64 | 28 bars | 9,957.78 | -381.04 | -3.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | 4,591.82 | 2026-05-07 | 4,684.86 | 8 bars | 9,779.58 | +178.2 | +1.8% |
| 2026-03-19 | 4,831.44 | 2026-04-01 | 4,685.22 | 13 bars | 10,105 | -325.42 | -3.2% |
| 2025-07-31 | 3,300.66 | 2025-08-02 | 3,363.12 | 2 bars | 9,937.19 | +167.81 | +1.7% |
| 2025-05-15 | 3,198.6 | 2025-05-21 | 3,301.37 | 6 bars | 9,647.12 | +290.06 | +3.0% |
| 2025-03-01 | 2,863.43 | 2025-03-05 | 2,927.54 | 4 bars | 9,454.77 | +192.35 | +2.0% |
| 2024-12-19 | 2,603.3 | 2024-12-27 | 2,652.67 | 8 bars | 9,297.37 | +157.4 | +1.7% |
| 2024-11-07 | 2,656.33 | 2024-11-21 | 2,649.67 | 14 bars | 9,339.38 | -42 | -0.4% |
| 2024-02-14 | 1,988.99 | 2024-02-21 | 2,003 | 7 bars | 9,292.65 | +46.73 | +0.5% |
| 2024-01-11 | 2,000 | 2024-01-16 | 2,038.98 | 5 bars | 9,133.24 | +159.41 | +1.8% |
| 2023-11-09 | 1,930.96 | 2023-11-17 | 1,959.02 | 8 bars | 9,020.47 | +112.77 | +1.3% |
| 2023-09-28 | 1,882.94 | 2023-10-12 | 1,874.06 | 14 bars | 9,081.35 | -60.88 | -0.7% |
| 2023-08-10 | 1,920.96 | 2023-08-24 | 1,909.05 | 14 bars | 9,156.32 | -74.97 | -0.8% |
| 2023-06-29 | 1,891.95 | 2023-07-10 | 1,902.05 | 11 bars | 9,125.92 | +30.4 | +0.3% |
| 2023-05-19 | 1,978.99 | 2023-06-17 | 1,943.03 | 29 bars | 9,313.43 | -187.51 | -2.0% |
| 2023-04-23 | 1,983.99 | 2023-05-03 | 2,011.99 | 10 bars | 9,202.19 | +111.23 | +1.2% |
| 2023-02-04 | 1,867.93 | 2023-03-02 | 1,823.09 | 26 bars | 9,447.43 | -245.24 | -2.6% |
| 2022-09-16 | 1,654.83 | 2022-10-03 | 1,656.17 | 17 bars | 9,458.66 | -11.23 | -0.1% |
| 2022-08-20 | 1,739.87 | 2022-09-13 | 1,717.14 | 24 bars | 9,603.04 | -144.38 | -1.5% |
| 2022-07-06 | 1,770.88 | 2022-07-28 | 1,735.13 | 22 bars | 9,820.54 | -217.5 | -2.2% |
| 2022-06-14 | 1,827.91 | 2022-06-17 | 1,858.07 | 3 bars | 9,680.49 | +140.05 | +1.5% |
| 2022-04-26 | 1,908.95 | 2022-05-22 | 1,854.07 | 26 bars | 9,986.99 | -306.5 | -3.1% |
| 2021-09-17 | 1,764.88 | 2021-10-04 | 1,771.11 | 17 bars | 9,971.78 | +15.22 | +0.1% |
| 2021-08-07 | 1,772.45 | 2021-08-17 | 1,790.57 | 10 bars | 9,890.58 | +81.2 | +0.8% |
| 2021-06-16 | 1,860.9 | 2021-07-04 | 1,791.89 | 18 bars | 10,292.03 | -401.45 | -3.9% |
| 2021-03-31 | 1,700.97 | 2021-04-02 | 1,740.73 | 2 bars | 10,077.09 | +214.94 | +2.1% |
| 2021-02-18 | 1,796.98 | 2021-03-17 | 1,743.45 | 27 bars | 10,407.29 | -330.2 | -3.2% |
| 2021-02-05 | 1,810.48 | 2021-02-11 | 1,854.27 | 6 bars | 10,181.87 | +225.42 | +2.2% |
| 2020-11-25 | 1,831.69 | 2020-12-04 | 1,855.26 | 9 bars | 10,072.6 | +109.27 | +1.1% |
| 2020-10-30 | 1,875.45 | 2020-11-03 | 1,906.06 | 4 bars | 9,930.69 | +141.91 | +1.4% |
| 2020-09-22 | 1,921.24 | 2020-10-05 | 1,911.74 | 13 bars | 10,000 | -69.31 | -0.7% |
Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.
| Period | 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23 |
| Parameters | {"length":20,"mult":2} |
| Rolling test | 365 bars × 62 start dates |
| Input hash | 357a3833e4d19a20 |