STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice

MACD Cross

Enter when the histogram turns positive, exit when it turns negative.

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: MACD
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“Whether this produces profit is not addressed in that article.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The reference article flags that "divergence" carries three different meanings in MACD writing — the two averages spreading apart, the MACD-minus-signal histogram, and price disagreeing with the indicator. It also records that MACD is a lagging indicator: by the time it shows a trend, the trend is largely over. The 12/26/9 defaults are convention from a daily-chart era, not a derived optimum.

Formulas

MACD line
MACD = EMA₁₂ − EMA₂₆
The 12/26 pair is the conventional default
Signal & histogram
Signal = EMA₉(MACD) ; Hist = MACD − Signal
This site enters when the histogram turns positive

Established

These rest on a single line of sourcing. The Glowwiki reference article draws on the same encyclopaedia cited here, so two domains do not make two independent accounts. Nothing below has been checked against a second, separately grounded source. It is listed as established because the sources state it as definition rather than as finding — not because it has been cross-verified.

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. 기술적 분석 — Glowwiki (ko)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)

The short answer

Beat buy & hold in 2 of 3 markets tested.

BTC/USDT +292% · Gold (PAXG) -84%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.

MarketReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itMax DDUnderwaterGrid beat
BTC/USDT 822% 530% +292% yes 54% 1112d 94%
ETH/USDT 535% 276% +259% yes 70% 926d 100%
Gold (PAXG) 34% 119% -84% no 26% 1059d 0%

All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.

Evidence

Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.

Daily candlesBTC/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Total return
821.6%
10,000 → 92,156
vs buy & hold
+291.7%
over the same period 529.9%
Max drawdown
54.3%
10,000 → 7,358
Longest underwater
1112
1112 days · 96% of the period
Settings that beat it
15 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
38%
95% CI 29%–47% · n=114
A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (11×) and max drawdown (54.3%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.
Daily candles
account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

229 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

TimeframeReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itTrades
4H -28%524% -552% no712
1D ← 822%530% +292% yes114
1W 1750%524% +1227% yes12

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-36.4%-17.9%-8.0% 19.7%49.8% 94.3%293.6%33%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 821.6%, best 1683.5%, worst 413.0%. 15 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

MACD Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

fast 8fast 12fast 16fast 20
slow 21627%688%918%1379%
slow 26413%822%1683%1418%
slow 34614%1052%1187%927%
slow 50718%1061%729%671%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-15%36%241%-12%-36%29%59%-11%14%
Max DD46%41%21%44%37%16%15%22%13%
Trades11116121311111310
Recent closed trades 114 closed trades — showing the last 40
EnteredEntry ExitedExitHeld SizeP&L (USDT)Return
2026-09-04 81,311.01 2026-09-05 79,620.94 1 bars 94,547.33 -2,150.16 -2.3%
2026-08-19 64,757.78 2026-09-03 77,301.34 15 bars 79,363.86 +15,183.46 +19.1%
2026-08-08 64,955.66 2026-08-12 63,568.21 4 bars 81,258.43 -1,894.56 -2.3%
2026-07-02 60,054.01 2026-07-28 63,723.98 26 bars 76,731.93 +4,526.5 +5.9%
2026-06-30 60,290.33 2026-07-01 58,595.4 1 bars 79,109.54 -2,377.61 -3.0%
2026-06-14 64,490.24 2026-06-28 59,999 14 bars 85,201.54 -6,092 -7.1%
2026-05-05 79,900.94 2026-05-13 80,464.22 8 bars 84,774.48 +427.06 +0.5%
2026-04-07 68,888.09 2026-04-29 76,304.61 22 bars 76,687.94 +8,086.54 +10.5%
2026-03-26 71,372.2 2026-03-27 68,785.9 1 bars 79,730.65 -3,042.71 -3.8%
2026-02-16 68,867.01 2026-03-23 67,825.07 35 bars 81,117.56 -1,386.9 -1.7%
2025-12-21 88,405.09 2026-01-21 88,383.45 31 bars 81,299.86 -182.3 -0.2%
2025-11-28 91,379.61 2025-12-18 86,200.11 20 bars 86,357.46 -5,057.6 -5.9%
2025-10-27 114,616.69 2025-11-04 106,529.76 8 bars 93,099.07 -6,741.62 -7.2%
2025-10-02 118,654.29 2025-10-11 112,718.1 9 bars 98,198.24 -5,099.17 -5.2%
2025-09-07 110,243.07 2025-09-24 111,942.8 17 bars 96,900.82 +1,297.42 +1.3%
2025-08-12 118,745.34 2025-08-18 117,346.31 6 bars 98,252.41 -1,351.59 -1.4%
2025-07-23 120,014.41 2025-07-24 118,696.62 1 bars 99,542.1 -1,289.7 -1.3%
2025-06-27 107,000.53 2025-07-22 117,321.67 25 bars 90,966.84 +8,575.26 +9.4%
2025-06-11 110,329.53 2025-06-13 105,618.9 2 bars 95,214.22 -4,247.38 -4.5%
2025-05-22 109,698.81 2025-05-25 107,708.02 3 bars 97,168.23 -1,954.01 -2.0%
2025-05-19 106,507.5 2025-05-20 105,520.94 1 bars 98,273.04 -1,104.81 -1.1%
2025-04-12 83,465.54 2025-05-18 103,075.09 36 bars 79,736.37 +18,536.66 +23.3%
2025-03-16 84,380.61 2025-04-07 78,390.79 22 bars 86,000.84 -6,264.47 -7.3%
2025-03-07 89,976.85 2025-03-09 86,179.35 2 bars 89,970.24 -3,969.39 -4.4%
2025-02-21 98,354.16 2025-02-25 91,507.1 4 bars 96,895.9 -6,925.66 -7.1%
2025-01-16 100,547.6 2025-01-29 101,284.85 13 bars 96,383.16 +512.73 +0.5%
2025-01-06 98,412.79 2025-01-10 92,506.21 4 bars 102,742.57 -6,359.4 -6.2%
2024-12-17 106,111.68 2024-12-19 100,153.91 2 bars 109,072.25 -6,329.69 -5.8%
2024-11-07 75,609.78 2024-11-27 91,919.18 20 bars 89,898.97 +19,173.29 +21.3%
2024-10-29 69,997.19 2024-11-04 68,741.6 6 bars 91,724.27 -1,825.3 -2.0%
2024-10-15 66,117.04 2024-10-27 67,059.21 12 bars 90,616.61 +1,107.66 +1.2%
2024-09-13 58,161.38 2024-10-02 60,774.52 19 bars 86,893.95 +3,722.66 +4.3%
2024-08-20 59,468.22 2024-08-31 59,094.43 11 bars 87,618.65 -724.69 -0.8%
2024-07-13 57,918.03 2024-08-01 64,595.7 19 bars 78,718.24 +8,900.41 +11.3%
2024-06-06 71,143.55 2024-06-09 69,275.8 3 bars 81,002.41 -2,284.17 -2.8%
2024-05-13 61,514.74 2024-05-31 68,317.99 18 bars 73,082.03 +7,920.37 +10.8%
2024-05-06 64,044.01 2024-05-12 60,795.58 6 bars 77,141.08 -4,059.05 -5.3%
2024-02-28 57,065.87 2024-03-17 65,267.99 18 bars 67,581.92 +9,559.16 +14.1%
2024-01-30 43,324.36 2024-02-24 50,718.78 25 bars 57,844.55 +9,737.36 +16.8%
2024-01-09 46,974.52 2024-01-13 42,761.35 4 bars 63,671.05 -5,826.49 -9.2%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"fast":12,"slow":26,"signal":9}
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hashb272139f0a3ce866

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