MA Cross

Golden cross in, death cross out. The strategy everyone has heard of.

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: Moving Average Crossover
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“Whether this produces profit is not addressed in that article.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The reference states the crossover does not predict future direction, and cites a named source concluding that the death cross is not a reliable indicator of future market declines. It also defines golden and death crosses strictly as the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages crossing. Neither configuration on this site is that pair, so neither is a golden cross under that definition.

Formulas

Simple moving average

SMAₙ(t) = (1/n) · Σ Cₜ₋ᵢ

Simple mean of the last n closes

Entry / exit

fast > slow → long ; fast < slow → flat

Signal on close, fill on the next open

Established

A simple moving average is the plain average of closing prices over the chosen window. [1, 2]

These rest on a single line of sourcing. The Glowwiki reference article draws on the same encyclopaedia cited here, so two domains do not make two independent accounts. Nothing below has been checked against a second, separately grounded source. It is listed as established because the sources state it as definition rather than as finding — not because it has been cross-verified.

Conventional reading

Crossovers of a faster and a slower average are conventionally read as entry and exit points; whether that produces profit is outside the scope of the reference article. [1]
The reference states the crossover does not predict future direction — it shows trends that have already formed. [1, 3]
It further cites a named analysis concluding that the death cross is not a reliable indicator of future market declines. This is the best known signal in the family, and the standard reference denies it. [1, 3]
Golden and death crosses are defined strictly as the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages crossing. The settings on this page are not that pair, so calling either a golden cross would be wrong. [1, 3]
The usefulness of technical analysis as a whole is contested by the efficient-market hypothesis. The reference article states the dispute without ruling on it — and neither does this page. What is below is one measurement, not a verdict. [1, 2]

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Why your chart may not match A golden cross is defined as the 50-day simple moving average crossing the 200-day. This page runs 20/60 simple averages, and the EMA page runs 12/26 exponential ones. Neither is a golden cross under that definition, and neither should be read as testing one. The reference also cites a named analysis concluding the death cross is not a reliable indicator of future declines — the best known signal in this family, denied by the standard source for it.

Sources

Moving Average Crossover — Glowwiki (en)
Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)
Moving average crossover — Wikipedia (en)

The short answer

Beat buy & hold in 2 of 3 markets tested.

ETH/USDT +1060% · Gold (PAXG) -48%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.

Market	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Max DD	Underwater	Grid beat
BTC/USDT	1371%	530%	+841%	yes	51%	817d	93%
ETH/USDT	1336%	276%	+1060%	yes	69%	1527d	100%
Gold (PAXG)	71%	119%	-48%	no	20%	1346d	20%

All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.

Evidence

Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.

Daily candlesBTC/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

1370.7%

10,000 → 147,068

vs buy & hold

+840.8%

over the same period 529.9%

Max drawdown

51.4%

10,000 → 5,173

Longest underwater

817

817 days · 93% of the period

Settings that beat it

14 / 15

of 15 parameter settings tested

Win rate

42%

95% CI 26%–59% · n=31

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 31 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 26%–59% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 42% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (14×) and max drawdown (51.4%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

63 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	299%	524%	-225%	no	186
1D ←	1371%	530%	+841%	yes	31
1W	594%	524%	+70%	yes	3

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-44.7%	-22.4%	-6.9%	9.6%	64.6%	168.1%	466.1%	34%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 929.8%, best 3192.0%, worst 529.7%. 14 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

MA Cross run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

	fast 5	fast 10	fast 20	fast 50
slow 50	1404%	1180%	639%	·
slow 100	3192%	951%	868%	580%
slow 150	2830%	930%	839%	530%
slow 200	977%	1108%	671%	691%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	-45%	-21%	190%	9%	-34%	44%	13%	12%	25%
Max DD	49%	26%	18%	24%	44%	19%	30%	18%	22%
Trades	4	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2

Recent closed trades 31 closed trades — showing the last 31

Entered	Entry	Exited	Exit	Held	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2026-04-11	72,999.19	2026-06-03	66,727.46	53 bars	122,037.43	-10,707.74	-8.8%
2026-03-30	66,043.94	2026-04-07	68,819.23	8 bars	117,350.44	+4,686.98	+4.0%
2026-01-13	91,341.85	2026-02-02	76,929.74	20 bars	139,613.97	-22,263.53	-16.0%
2025-09-30	114,369.13	2025-10-26	111,590.45	26 bars	143,376.92	-3,762.95	-2.6%
2025-04-26	94,686	2025-08-31	108,761.92	127 bars	125,071.03	+18,305.89	+14.6%
2025-01-21	102,311.13	2025-02-18	95,732.12	28 bars	133,933.91	-8,862.87	-6.6%
2024-09-27	65,206.58	2025-01-10	92,506.21	105 bars	94,597.49	+39,336.41	+41.6%
2024-07-30	66,818.07	2024-08-13	59,316.97	14 bars	106,773.44	-12,175.94	-11.4%
2024-05-28	69,471.15	2024-06-28	61,675.61	31 bars	120,509.94	-13,736.5	-11.4%
2024-02-12	48,324.15	2024-04-26	64,466.08	74 bars	90,515.8	+29,994.13	+33.1%
2023-10-07	27,945.07	2024-01-29	42,010.03	114 bars	60,331.63	+30,184.17	+50.0%
2023-06-28	30,707.79	2023-08-11	29,441.03	44 bars	63,053.49	-2,721.86	-4.3%
2023-03-19	26,920.94	2023-05-15	26,904.15	57 bars	63,219.16	-165.67	-0.3%
2023-01-11	17,449.36	2023-03-14	24,100.21	62 bars	45,864.42	+17,354.74	+37.8%
2022-11-02	20,493.05	2022-11-15	16,609.41	13 bars	56,701.81	-10,837.39	-19.1%
2022-08-04	22,828.32	2022-09-01	20,038.42	28 bars	64,725.59	-8,023.78	-12.4%
2022-03-25	44,013.46	2022-04-24	39,421.89	30 bars	72,409.02	-7,683.43	-10.6%
2022-03-17	41,134.57	2022-03-24	42,861.32	7 bars	69,631	+2,778.02	+4.0%
2021-10-12	57,500.09	2021-12-01	56,922.08	50 bars	70,478.87	-847.87	-1.2%
2021-08-03	39,166.43	2021-09-27	43,139.32	55 bars	64,116.27	+6,362.6	+9.9%
2020-10-18	11,365.99	2021-05-03	56,549.92	197 bars	12,912.55	+51,203.72	+396.5%
2020-07-28	11,035.47	2020-09-13	10,435.45	47 bars	13,682.35	-769.79	-5.6%
2020-04-26	7,542.8	2020-07-01	9,133.51	66 bars	11,322.02	+2,360.32	+20.8%
2020-01-13	8,189.06	2020-03-09	8,030.74	56 bars	11,568.34	-246.32	-2.1%
2019-11-10	8,813.58	2019-11-25	6,896.78	15 bars	14,813.1	-3,244.76	-21.9%
2019-08-18	10,221.16	2019-08-27	10,368.41	9 bars	14,631.95	+181.15	+1.2%
2019-02-23	3,963.98	2019-08-03	10,518.49	161 bars	5,525.21	+9,106.74	+164.8%
2018-11-03	6,436.02	2018-11-06	6,465.76	3 bars	5,510.81	+14.4	+0.3%
2018-10-08	6,618.57	2018-10-13	6,294.85	5 bars	5,805.81	-295	-5.1%
2018-07-25	8,401.44	2018-08-19	6,384.77	25 bars	7,654.91	-1,849.1	-24.2%
2018-05-01	9,250.63	2018-05-29	7,095.45	28 bars	10,000	-2,345.09	-23.4%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"fast":20,"slow":60}
Rolling test	365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash	dfc530896beca60e

Daily candlesETH/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

1336.2%

10,000 → 143,621

vs buy & hold

+1060.5%

over the same period 275.8%

Max drawdown

69.3%

10,000 → 4,069

Longest underwater

1527

1527 days · 94% of the period

Settings that beat it

15 / 15

of 15 parameter settings tested

Win rate

58%

95% CI 39%–76% · n=24

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 24 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 39%–76% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 58% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (12×) and max drawdown (69.3%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

49 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	437%	271%	+165%	yes	184
1D ←	1336%	276%	+1060%	yes	24
1W	80%	271%	-191%	no	6

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-46.4%	-30.6%	-16.0%	8.9%	41.5%	84.2%	833.3%	36%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 1588.0%, best 2857.5%, worst 455.7%. 15 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

	fast 5	fast 10	fast 20	fast 50
slow 50	2858%	2380%	1616%	·
slow 100	2036%	1426%	1185%	456%
slow 150	2408%	2429%	2113%	975%
slow 200	1588%	1580%	892%	674%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	-15%	-25%	254%	8%	-42%	23%	8%	55%	52%
Max DD	38%	26%	30%	31%	48%	19%	23%	21%	16%
Trades	1	1	1	2	3	2	2	2	1

Recent closed trades 24 closed trades — showing the last 24

Entered	Entry	Exited	Exit	Held	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2026-03-29	1,995.74	2026-05-25	2,098.81	57 bars	94,632.32	+4,688.58	+5.0%
2026-01-11	3,088.26	2026-02-01	2,450.73	21 bars	119,488.53	-24,856.21	-20.8%
2025-07-13	2,944.76	2025-10-03	4,482.11	82 bars	78,661.58	+40,826.95	+51.9%
2025-05-10	2,346.21	2025-07-02	2,403.81	53 bars	76,930.56	+1,731.02	+2.3%
2024-10-22	2,668.04	2025-01-06	3,634.18	76 bars	56,591.83	+20,338.74	+35.9%
2024-10-07	2,441.24	2024-10-14	2,467.69	7 bars	56,097.43	+494.4	+0.9%
2024-05-27	3,828.38	2024-07-04	3,293.84	38 bars	65,331.73	-9,234.3	-14.1%
2024-02-13	2,661.32	2024-04-16	3,100.45	63 bars	56,190.81	+9,140.93	+16.3%
2023-10-28	1,780.3	2024-02-07	2,371.44	102 bars	42,268.24	+13,922.57	+32.9%
2023-07-05	1,937.16	2023-08-11	1,851.54	37 bars	44,311.23	-2,042.99	-4.6%
2023-03-22	1,802.13	2023-05-16	1,815.3	55 bars	44,077.79	+233.44	+0.5%
2023-01-10	1,321.06	2023-03-12	1,471.19	61 bars	39,658.94	+4,418.85	+11.1%
2022-11-04	1,531.78	2022-11-21	1,141.64	17 bars	53,318.27	-13,659.33	-25.6%
2022-07-29	1,725.38	2022-09-08	1,629.19	41 bars	56,579.56	-3,261.29	-5.8%
2022-03-28	3,297.3	2022-05-01	2,725.31	34 bars	68,591.6	-12,012.04	-17.5%
2021-10-16	3,870.31	2021-12-12	4,087.64	57 bars	65,074.91	+3,516.68	+5.4%
2021-08-05	2,725.91	2021-09-29	2,803.75	55 bars	63,395.03	+1,679.89	+2.6%
2020-10-24	409.39	2021-06-04	2,855.82	223 bars	9,106.15	+54,288.87	+596.2%
2020-04-25	187.69	2020-09-21	370.85	149 bars	4,617.96	+4,488.19	+97.2%
2020-01-18	170	2020-03-15	122.48	57 bars	6,422.72	-1,804.77	-28.1%
2019-11-13	187.18	2019-11-25	139.92	12 bars	8,609.46	-2,186.73	-25.4%
2019-02-24	157.83	2019-07-20	220.73	146 bars	6,168.37	+2,441.09	+39.6%
2019-01-08	149.36	2019-01-31	108.24	23 bars	8,529.34	-2,360.97	-27.7%
2018-04-30	691.2	2018-06-05	590.72	36 bars	10,000	-1,470.66	-14.7%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"fast":20,"slow":60}
Rolling test	365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash	971bd9aa6546d5ab

Daily candlesGold (PAXG) · 2214 bars · 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

70.9%

10,000 → 17,089

vs buy & hold

-47.7%

over the same period 118.6%

Max drawdown

20.0%

10,000 → 8,474

Longest underwater

1346

1346 days · 93% of the period

Settings that beat it

3 / 15

of 15 parameter settings tested

Win rate

41%

95% CI 22%–64% · n=17

The win rate on this page is not a readable number. With 17 closed trades the 95% confidence interval runs 22%–64% — it spans a coin flip, so the headline 41% cannot be distinguished from chance at this sample size. It is shown because leaving it out would be worse, not because it supports a conclusion.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (2×) and max drawdown (20.0%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

35 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	44%	119%	-75%	no	112
1D ←	71%	119%	-48%	no	17
1W	94%	123%	-29%	no	1

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-11.1%	-5.2%	-2.5%	1.2%	20.4%	32.5%	49.9%	44%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 15 combinations, median 96.1%, best 132.5%, worst 46.8%. 3 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

	fast 5	fast 10	fast 20	fast 50
slow 50	68%	61%	47%	·
slow 100	82%	86%	90%	91%
slow 150	120%	102%	106%	131%
slow 200	96%	102%	100%	133%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	-5%	-7%	-1%	18%	28%	-0%
Max DD	13%	12%	11%	8%	11%	8%
Trades	3	2	2	2	1	0

Recent closed trades 17 closed trades — showing the last 17

Entered	Entry	Exited	Exit	Held	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2025-08-15	3,331.33	2026-03-22	4,501.05	219 bars	12,733.85	+4,436.79	+34.8%
2025-08-08	3,395.16	2025-08-12	3,344.04	4 bars	12,954.39	-220.54	-1.7%
2025-01-09	2,667.33	2025-07-11	3,320.59	183 bars	10,426.72	+2,527.67	+24.2%
2024-07-16	2,404.2	2024-11-18	2,578.71	125 bars	9,740.58	+686.14	+7.0%
2024-03-06	2,090.04	2024-06-10	2,310.84	96 bars	8,827.51	+913.07	+10.3%
2023-10-24	1,956.98	2024-01-23	2,001	91 bars	8,650.59	+176.92	+2.1%
2023-07-27	1,956.98	2023-08-20	1,873.06	24 bars	9,056.24	-405.65	-4.5%
2023-03-19	1,962.98	2023-05-27	1,961.02	69 bars	9,083.45	-27.21	-0.3%
2022-11-12	1,780.89	2023-02-18	1,815.09	98 bars	8,930.13	+153.32	+1.7%
2022-08-16	1,775.89	2022-09-02	1,689.16	17 bars	9,407.46	-477.33	-5.1%
2022-04-18	1,988.99	2022-04-30	1,905.05	12 bars	9,841.67	-434.21	-4.4%
2022-01-05	1,818.91	2022-04-16	1,979.01	101 bars	9,063.59	+778.08	+8.6%
2021-10-29	1,802.9	2021-12-08	1,788.11	40 bars	9,156.88	-93.29	-1.0%
2021-09-04	1,830.91	2021-09-22	1,782.11	18 bars	9,426.5	-269.61	-2.9%
2021-04-19	1,801.3	2021-06-23	1,779.48	65 bars	9,561.19	-134.69	-1.4%
2020-12-28	1,933.64	2021-01-26	1,860.12	29 bars	9,958.97	-397.78	-4.0%
2020-11-19	1,882.66	2020-11-23	1,878.69	4 bars	10,000	-41.03	-0.4%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"fast":20,"slow":60}
Rolling test	365 bars × 62 start dates
Input hash	aa55023f450b70ac

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