STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice

DCA

Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule, never sell. The baseline every other strategy must beat.

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 분할매수 (정액적립식)
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The harmonic-mean advantage is stated against buying a constant NUMBER of units each period — not against a lump sum invested up front. Those are different comparisons and are commonly confused.

Standard retail accumulation method; described by U.S. SEC investor education material. Also known as DCA, periodic investment.

Formulas

Units accumulated
U = Σ (A / pᵢ)
A = fixed amount per interval
Average cost
P̄ = (n · A) / U
The harmonic mean of the purchase prices — always ≤ the arithmetic mean

Established

Backed by 2 independent publishers. U.S. SEC — Investor.gov · Wikipedia · Glowwiki — separate institutions describing the same thing from their own material.

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

  1. Dollar-Cost Averaging — U.S. SEC — Investor.gov (en)
  2. Dollar cost averaging — Wikipedia (en)
  3. 분할매수 (정액적립식) — Glowwiki (ko)

The short answer

Beat buy & hold in all 3 markets tested.

BTC/USDT +529% · Gold (PAXG) +12%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.

MarketReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itMax DDUnderwaterGrid beat
BTC/USDT 1059% 530% +529% yes 76% 846d 81%
ETH/USDT 671% 276% +395% yes 79% 1382d 69%
Gold (PAXG) 131% 119% +12% yes 28% 634d 69%

All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.

Evidence

Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.

Daily candlesBTC/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Total return
1058.6%
10,000 → 115,856
vs buy & hold
+528.7%
over the same period 529.9%
Max drawdown
76.5%
10,000 → 4,484
Longest underwater
846
846 days · 96% of the period
Settings that beat it
13 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
n=0
A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (49×) and max drawdown (76.5%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.
Daily candles
account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

49 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

TimeframeReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itTrades
4H 679%524% +155% yes0
1D ← 1059%530% +529% yes0
1W 570%524% +46% yes0

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-50.9%-34.5%-10.9% 25.4%56.2% 99.9%382.0%33%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 793.2%, best 1243.5%, worst 422.1%. 13 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

DCA run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

intervalBars 1intervalBars 7intervalBars 14intervalBars 30
amountPct 0.01793%1212%856%465%
amountPct 0.02684%1059%1200%814%
amountPct 0.05505%777%914%1243%
amountPct 0.1422%637%722%839%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-49%16%196%3%-35%56%51%-14%16%
Max DD56%44%13%31%41%14%16%29%13%
Trades000000000

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"intervalBars":7,"amountPct":0.02}
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash324be4210c730d82

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