Martingale

Double down after every loss. Every closed trade is a winner by construction — that is what makes it dangerous.

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: 마틴게일 (베팅 시스템)
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“실제 수익으로 이어지는지는 이 문서에서 다루지 않음.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: The capital formula C = s₁(mᴺ−1)/(m−1) — and the 1,023× figure at m=2 over 10 steps — is arithmetic that follows from the definition, not a figure quoted by a source. The reference article marks it as such.

18th-century French casino betting system. Also known as Doubling system, averaging down.

Formulas

Stake at step n

sₙ = s₁ · mⁿ⁻¹

m = multiplier (classically 2)

Capital to survive N steps

C = s₁ · (mᴺ − 1) / (m − 1)

At m=2, 10 steps needs 1,023× the opening stake

Average entry after N adds

P̄ = Σ(sᵢ) / Σ(sᵢ / pᵢ)

Cost basis falls, but exposure grows geometrically

Expected value per cycle

E = p·w − (1−p)·l − fees

With a fair-coin edge of zero, fees make E strictly negative

Established

The system doubles the stake after each loss so that one win recovers all prior losses plus the original stake. [1, 3]
Required capital grows geometrically with the number of consecutive losses. [1]
With finite capital and a finite table limit, the probability of eventual ruin approaches certainty — the gambler's ruin result. [1, 2]
The system does not change the expected value of the underlying bet; it redistributes outcomes into many small wins and rare large losses. [1, 3]

These rest on a single line of sourcing. The Glowwiki reference article draws on the same encyclopaedia cited here, so two domains do not make two independent accounts. Nothing below has been checked against a second, separately grounded source. It is listed as established because the sources state it as definition rather than as finding — not because it has been cross-verified.

Conventional reading

Applied to markets it is usually implemented as averaging down: adding larger positions as price falls, exiting when the averaged entry is recovered. [3]
On spot without leverage the failure mode is typically capital lock-up rather than liquidation; forced liquidation requires margin. [3]
The capital requirement above is arithmetic that follows from the doubling rule, not a figure quoted by any source. [3]

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Sources

Martingale (betting system) — Wikipedia (en)
Gambler's ruin — Wikipedia (en)
마틴게일 (베팅 시스템) — Glowwiki (ko)

The short answer

Beat buy & hold in none of the 3 markets tested.

Gold (PAXG) -106% · BTC/USDT -443%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.

Market	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Max DD	Underwater	Grid beat
BTC/USDT	87%	530%	-443%	no	40%	411d	0%
ETH/USDT	110%	276%	-166%	no	43%	739d	0%
Gold (PAXG)	12%	119%	-106%	no	4%	155d	0%

All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.

Evidence

Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.

Daily candlesBTC/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

86.8%

10,000 → 18,677

vs buy & hold

-443.1%

over the same period 529.9%

Max drawdown

40.4%

10,000 → 6,202

Longest underwater

411

411 days · 77% of the period

Settings that beat it

0 / 16

of 16 parameter settings tested

Win rate

100%

95% CI 99%–100% · n=459

459 trades, a 100% win rate — and it still lost to doing nothing clever. A martingale only closes a cycle at a profit, so the win rate is 100% by construction. It tells you nothing about risk. What it actually cost: 63× the opening order tied up at the worst moment, and 443.1% left on the table versus simply buying a fixed amount on a schedule.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (63×) and max drawdown (40.4%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

Showing 397 of 1189 fills on the chart. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	80%	524%	-444%	no	332
1D ←	87%	530%	-443%	no	459
1W	25%	524%	-499%	no	213

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-38.5%	-11.0%	2.9%	9.0%	11.2%	13.4%	17.6%	20%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 75.3%, best 130.0%, worst 35.4%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

Martingale run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

	multiplier 1.5	multiplier 2	multiplier 2.5	multiplier 3
dropPct 0.03	130%	102%	75%	91%
dropPct 0.05	73%	87%	104%	118%
dropPct 0.08	54%	61%	82%	90%
dropPct 0.12	35%	43%	45%	52%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	-35%	3%	10%	15%	-15%	7%	11%	1%	6%
Max DD	40%	9%	1%	1%	23%	2%	5%	7%	9%
Trades	30	75	87	126	29	46	65	36	24

Recent closed trades 459 closed trades — showing the last 40

Entered	Entry	Avg	Exited	Exit	Held	Steps	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2026-09-19	81,290.61	81,371.91	2026-09-21	83,771.16	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-09-04	79,700.6	77,102.01	2026-09-18	79,375.36	14 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-08-29	78,269.11	78,347.38	2026-09-03	80,657.46	5 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-08-25	78,578.41	78,656.99	2026-08-28	80,976.19	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-08-22	77,113.47	77,190.58	2026-08-24	79,466.55	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-08-20	73,061.66	73,134.72	2026-08-21	75,291.1	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-05-06	81,487.73	66,132.57	2026-08-19	68,082.49	105 bars	6	12,612.6	+358.9	+2.9%
2026-01-14	97,000.26	78,721.99	2026-05-05	81,043.11	111 bars	6	12,612.6	+358.9	+2.9%
2025-10-27	114,164.7	92,652.05	2026-01-13	95,383.9	78 bars	6	12,612.6	+358.9	+2.9%
2025-10-06	124,720.87	111,146.82	2025-10-26	114,423.99	20 bars	4	3,003	+85.45	+2.9%
2025-10-02	120,589.61	120,710.2	2025-10-05	124,269.34	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-09-18	117,132.07	113,313.04	2025-10-01	116,654.08	13 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-08-15	117,400.72	113,572.94	2025-09-17	116,921.63	33 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-08-12	120,194.15	120,314.34	2025-08-14	123,861.81	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-08	116,733.08	116,849.81	2025-08-11	120,295.13	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-07-15	117,816.97	113,975.61	2025-08-07	117,336.18	23 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-07-11	117,586.42	117,704.01	2025-07-14	121,174.51	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-07-03	109,639.57	109,749.21	2025-07-10	112,985.17	7 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-06-24	106,136.04	106,242.18	2025-07-02	109,374.73	8 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-06-10	110,329.53	102,640.43	2025-06-23	105,666.78	13 bars	3	1,401.4	+39.88	+2.9%
2025-05-22	111,752.06	103,963.82	2025-06-09	107,029.19	18 bars	3	1,401.4	+39.88	+2.9%
2025-05-19	105,626.53	105,732.15	2025-05-21	108,849.67	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-05-09	103,023.48	103,126.5	2025-05-18	106,167.18	9 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-05-02	96,935.58	97,032.52	2025-05-08	99,893.52	6 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-22	93,489.71	93,583.2	2025-05-01	96,342.5	9 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-12	85,319.54	85,404.86	2025-04-21	87,923.02	9 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-10	79,647.1	79,726.75	2025-04-11	82,077.49	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-07	79,202.82	76,620.46	2025-04-09	78,879.61	2 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-04-03	83,254.7	80,540.22	2025-04-06	82,914.95	3 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-03-25	87,436.57	84,585.75	2025-04-02	87,079.76	8 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-03-20	84,265.5	84,349.77	2025-03-24	86,836.82	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-03-12	83,721.96	83,805.68	2025-03-19	86,276.69	7 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-03-10	78,635.16	78,713.79	2025-03-11	81,034.67	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-03-08	86,265.56	83,452.92	2025-03-09	85,913.53	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-03-06	89,976.86	87,043.21	2025-03-07	89,609.68	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-03-04	87,325.62	87,412.95	2025-03-05	89,990.32	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-03-02	94,317.13	91,241.98	2025-03-03	93,932.25	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-02-04	97,812.01	83,262.81	2025-03-01	85,717.82	25 bars	5	6,206.2	+176.6	+2.9%
2025-01-31	102,480.77	95,338.67	2025-02-03	98,149.73	3 bars	3	1,401.4	+39.88	+2.9%
2025-01-21	106,196.89	102,734.4	2025-01-30	105,763.53	9 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"basePct":0.02,"dropPct":0.05,"multiplier":2,"takeProfitPct":0.03,"maxSteps":10}
Rolling test	365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash	68547000cad0528d

Daily candlesETH/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

109.5%

10,000 → 20,955

vs buy & hold

-166.2%

over the same period 275.8%

Max drawdown

43.4%

10,000 → 6,397

Longest underwater

739

739 days · 76% of the period

Settings that beat it

0 / 16

of 16 parameter settings tested

Win rate

100%

95% CI 99%–100% · n=557

557 trades, a 100% win rate — and it still lost to doing nothing clever. A martingale only closes a cycle at a profit, so the win rate is 100% by construction. It tells you nothing about risk. What it actually cost: 63× the opening order tied up at the worst moment, and 166.2% left on the table versus simply buying a fixed amount on a schedule.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (63×) and max drawdown (43.4%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

Showing 483 of 1447 fills on the chart. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	175%	271%	-97%	no	618
1D ←	110%	276%	-166%	no	557
1W	28%	271%	-243%	no	223

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-34.1%	-28.1%	-10.6%	9.7%	12.7%	16.0%	19.1%	36%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 82.7%, best 133.8%, worst 48.1%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

	multiplier 1.5	multiplier 2	multiplier 2.5	multiplier 3
dropPct 0.03	91%	83%	134%	132%
dropPct 0.05	69%	110%	111%	96%
dropPct 0.08	71%	63%	84%	86%
dropPct 0.12	48%	54%	66%	68%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	-29%	-21%	13%	19%	-33%	9%	11%	16%	-2%
Max DD	43%	28%	29%	4%	40%	2%	12%	4%	28%
Trades	44	51	100	141	35	55	64	95	4

Recent closed trades 557 closed trades — showing the last 40

Entered	Entry	Avg	Exited	Exit	Held	Steps	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2026-01-14	3,356.6	2,724.1	2026-09-21	2,804.42	250 bars	6	12,612.6	+358.9	+2.9%
2026-01-08	3,108.2	3,111.31	2026-01-13	3,203.05	5 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-01-06	3,298.49	3,190.94	2026-01-07	3,285.03	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-01-03	3,128.67	3,131.8	2026-01-05	3,224.14	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-23	2,966.5	2,969.47	2026-01-02	3,057.02	10 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-20	2,979.42	2,982.4	2025-12-22	3,070.33	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-18	2,829.98	2,832.81	2025-12-19	2,916.34	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-16	2,963.78	2,867.15	2025-12-17	2,951.69	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-12-12	3,086.4	2,985.77	2025-12-15	3,073.81	3 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-12-10	3,325.8	3,217.37	2025-12-11	3,312.23	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-12-08	3,125.72	3,128.85	2025-12-09	3,221.1	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-06	3,039.58	3,042.62	2025-12-07	3,132.33	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-03	3,189.95	3,085.95	2025-12-05	3,176.94	2 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-28	3,032.67	2,933.79	2025-12-02	3,020.29	4 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-24	2,954.86	2,957.81	2025-11-27	3,045.02	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-11-21	2,767.23	2,770	2025-11-23	2,851.67	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-11-19	3,026.99	2,928.3	2025-11-20	3,014.64	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-17	3,032.96	3,035.99	2025-11-18	3,125.5	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-11-15	3,169.46	3,066.13	2025-11-16	3,156.53	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-13	3,233.16	3,127.74	2025-11-14	3,219.96	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-10	3,569.63	3,453.25	2025-11-12	3,555.07	2 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-11-08	3,403.21	3,406.61	2025-11-09	3,507.06	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-27	4,122.21	3,345.44	2025-11-07	3,444.08	11 bars	6	12,612.6	+358.9	+2.9%
2025-10-24	3,936.85	3,940.78	2025-10-26	4,056.98	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-22	3,807.43	3,811.24	2025-10-23	3,923.61	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-20	3,981.21	3,985.19	2025-10-21	4,102.69	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-15	3,987.6	3,857.59	2025-10-19	3,971.33	4 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-10-13	4,242.97	4,104.63	2025-10-14	4,225.66	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-10-07	4,449.92	3,965.61	2025-10-12	4,082.54	5 bars	4	3,003	+85.45	+2.9%
2025-10-02	4,486.59	4,491.08	2025-10-06	4,623.5	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-09-13	4,668.86	4,160.73	2025-10-01	4,283.4	18 bars	4	3,003	+85.45	+2.9%
2025-08-30	4,375.89	4,380.26	2025-09-12	4,509.41	13 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-27	4,508.96	4,361.95	2025-08-29	4,490.56	2 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-08-25	4,378.37	4,382.75	2025-08-26	4,511.97	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-23	4,780.79	4,785.57	2025-08-24	4,926.67	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-15	4,441.69	4,296.87	2025-08-22	4,423.56	7 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-08-13	4,751.67	4,596.75	2025-08-14	4,732.28	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-08-10	4,252.7	4,256.95	2025-08-12	4,382.46	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-08	4,011.5	4,015.52	2025-08-09	4,133.91	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-08-05	3,613.81	3,617.42	2025-08-07	3,724.08	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"basePct":0.02,"dropPct":0.05,"multiplier":2,"takeProfitPct":0.03,"maxSteps":10}
Rolling test	365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hash	74fdfee81777d8af

Daily candlesGold (PAXG) · 2214 bars · 2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23

Total return

12.3%

10,000 → 11,229

vs buy & hold

-106.3%

over the same period 118.6%

Max drawdown

3.5%

10,000 → 9,874

Longest underwater

155

155 days · 84% of the period

Settings that beat it

0 / 16

of 16 parameter settings tested

Win rate

100%

95% CI 96%–100% · n=94

94 trades, a 100% win rate — and it still lost to doing nothing clever. A martingale only closes a cycle at a profit, so the win rate is 100% by construction. It tells you nothing about risk. What it actually cost: 31× the opening order tied up at the worst moment, and 106.3% left on the table versus simply buying a fixed amount on a schedule.

A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (31×) and max drawdown (3.5%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.

Daily candles

account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

227 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

Timeframe	Return	Buy & hold	vs B&H	Beat it	Trades
4H	15%	119%	-104%	no	89
1D ←	12%	119%	-106%	no	94
1W	7%	123%	-115%	no	65

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 62 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worst	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Best	Losing starts
-1.4%	0.8%	1.1%	1.4%	1.9%	2.6%	4.0%	3%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 8.3%, best 18.9%, worst 3.8%. 0 of them beat buy & hold.

A strategy that only works at one setting did not work — it was fitted.

Parameter grid

	multiplier 1.5	multiplier 2	multiplier 2.5	multiplier 3
dropPct 0.03	17%	10%	15%	19%
dropPct 0.05	8%	12%	14%	19%
dropPct 0.08	6%	7%	8%	10%
dropPct 0.12	4%	4%	4%	5%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Return	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	3%
Max DD	2%	4%	0%	0%	0%	1%
Trades	9	7	11	16	26	19

Recent closed trades 94 closed trades — showing the last 40

Entered	Entry	Avg	Exited	Exit	Held	Steps	Size	P&L (USDT)	Return
2026-08-20	4,516.36	4,520.87	2026-08-24	4,654.17	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-08-08	4,349.21	4,353.56	2026-08-19	4,481.93	11 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-06-16	4,325.17	4,184.15	2026-08-07	4,307.52	52 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-05-08	4,709.07	4,196.56	2026-06-15	4,320.3	38 bars	4	3,003	+85.45	+2.9%
2026-04-09	4,749.88	4,595.02	2026-05-07	4,730.5	28 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-04-02	4,670.47	4,675.14	2026-04-08	4,812.99	6 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-03-04	5,181.59	4,617.65	2026-04-01	4,753.8	28 bars	4	3,003	+85.45	+2.9%
2026-02-28	5,372.46	5,197.3	2026-03-03	5,350.54	3 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-02-21	5,144.45	5,149.6	2026-02-27	5,301.43	6 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-02-12	4,930.48	4,935.41	2026-02-20	5,080.94	8 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-02-06	4,944.74	4,949.69	2026-02-11	5,095.63	5 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-02-04	5,033.42	4,869.3	2026-02-05	5,012.88	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-01-30	4,926.91	4,766.27	2026-02-03	4,906.81	4 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-01-28	5,544.22	5,363.45	2026-01-29	5,521.6	1 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2026-01-23	5,009.81	5,014.82	2026-01-27	5,162.69	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-01-21	4,802.45	4,807.25	2026-01-22	4,948.99	1 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2026-01-13	4,607.27	4,611.88	2026-01-20	4,747.86	7 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-24	4,499.09	4,503.59	2026-01-12	4,636.38	19 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-12-19	4,353.5	4,357.85	2025-12-23	4,486.34	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-11-29	4,250.25	4,254.5	2025-12-18	4,379.95	19 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-11-14	4,076.77	4,080.84	2025-11-28	4,201.17	14 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-21	4,100.36	4,104.46	2025-11-13	4,225.48	23 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-17	4,241.05	4,245.29	2025-10-20	4,370.46	3 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-14	4,178.8	4,182.98	2025-10-16	4,306.31	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-11	3,994.15	3,998.14	2025-10-13	4,116.03	2 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-10-07	4,002.88	3,872.37	2025-10-10	3,986.55	3 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-10-02	3,867.3	3,871.17	2025-10-06	3,985.31	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-09-23	3,776.22	3,779.99	2025-10-01	3,891.45	8 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-09-10	3,644.08	3,647.73	2025-09-22	3,755.28	12 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-09-02	3,549.92	3,553.47	2025-09-09	3,658.25	7 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-06-14	3,489.34	3,375.58	2025-09-01	3,475.1	79 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-05-25	3,349.31	3,352.66	2025-06-13	3,451.52	19 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-05-07	3,384.69	3,274.34	2025-05-24	3,370.88	17 bars	2	600.6	+17.09	+2.9%
2025-04-22	3,350.67	3,354.03	2025-05-06	3,452.92	14 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-17	3,348.67	3,352.02	2025-04-21	3,450.86	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-12	3,243.62	3,246.86	2025-04-16	3,342.6	4 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-04-01	3,133.57	3,136.7	2025-04-11	3,229.19	10 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-03-19	3,065.53	3,068.6	2025-03-31	3,159.08	12 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-02-20	2,954.48	2,957.43	2025-03-18	3,044.63	26 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%
2025-02-06	2,879.44	2,882.32	2025-02-19	2,967.3	13 bars	1	200.2	+5.7	+2.9%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period	2020-09-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters	{"basePct":0.02,"dropPct":0.05,"multiplier":2,"takeProfitPct":0.03,"maxSteps":10}
Rolling test	365 bars × 62 start dates
Input hash	c53abb0489404900

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