STEADYTRADE
Strategy backtests · past-window simulation, not investment advice

Parabolic SAR

Flip with the parabolic stop. Always in or out, never neutral for long.

What it is

Reference — Glowwiki: Parabolic SAR
The definitions and formulas below follow that article. It states its own limit plainly:
“Whether this produces profit is not addressed in that article.”
That is the question this page answers.

Note from the reference: Wilder did not propose this indicator as a standalone system. The reference records that he recommended establishing direction with the SAR and then using a separate indicator — the Average Directional Index — to judge the strength of that trend. It also states plainly that the SAR generally works only in trending markets and produces whipsaws during ranging or sideways phases. The result on this page is a standalone run, which is not the configuration its author described.

Formulas

SAR step
SARₜ₊₁ = SARₜ + AF · (EP − SARₜ)
The value produced is the stop for the NEXT period, built from data available today
Acceleration
AF += increment, only when a new EP is made
Driven by events, not by time — a stalled trend stops tightening

Established

These rest on a single line of sourcing. The Glowwiki reference article draws on the same encyclopaedia cited here, so two domains do not make two independent accounts. Nothing below has been checked against a second, separately grounded source. It is listed as established because the sources state it as definition rather than as finding — not because it has been cross-verified.

Conventional reading

Listed as convention, not as established fact.

Why your chart may not match The SAR value is defined as the stop for the next period, built from data available today — so the level that applies during a bar is the one computed before it. The indicator code here folds the current bar's high and low into that bar's value, which makes it the level for the following bar. This page therefore compares each close against the previous bar's SAR. Using the same bar's value instead is not reading the future — the high and low are known at the close — but it judges a bar with a number that bar helped produce. On ETH the difference is large: 83.5% one way, 283.8% the other, from the same rules.

Sources

  1. Parabolic SAR — Glowwiki (en)
  2. Technical analysis — Wikipedia (en)
  3. Parabolic SAR — Wikipedia (en)

The short answer

Beat buy & hold in 1 of 3 markets tested.

ETH/USDT +8% · BTC/USDT -244%. A rule that wins in one market and loses in another did not find an edge; it found a rising asset. Each figure is measured only against buying and holding that same market over that same period.

MarketReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itMax DDUnderwaterGrid beat
BTC/USDT 286% 530% -244% no 66% 2020d 38%
ETH/USDT 284% 276% +8% yes 81% 1780d 75%
Gold (PAXG) 36% 119% -83% no 24% 1182d 0%

All figures on this page are from daily candles unless a row says otherwise.

Evidence

Everything below is the same rules run over real price history. Pick a market to see the fills, the equity path and the parameter grid for it.

Daily candlesBTC/USDT · 3188 bars · 2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Total return
286.0%
10,000 → 38,603
vs buy & hold
-243.9%
over the same period 529.9%
Max drawdown
65.8%
10,000 → 5,538
Longest underwater
2020
2020 days · 98% of the period
Settings that beat it
6 / 16
of 16 parameter settings tested
Win rate
40%
95% CI 32%–49% · n=126
A 0% risk of ruin here is a property of the test, not a safety rating. These runs are long-only spot with no borrowed money, so there is no margin call and nothing can force the position closed. The account cannot be wiped out — it gets stuck holding the asset instead. Capital deployed (6×) and max drawdown (65.8%) are the numbers that carry the risk on this page. The same rules run on margin would be a different measurement, and this figure would not stay at zero.
Daily candles
account equitybuy & holddashed = starting capital

253 fills. Signals are taken on the close and filled at the next open.

Timeframe

Everything above uses the daily row. These are the same rules and the same parameters on a different candle size.

TimeframeReturnBuy & holdvs B&HBeat itTrades
4H -49%524% -573% no713
1D ← 286%530% -244% no126
1W 597%524% +73% yes17

Outcome distribution

A single return is one chosen start date. These are 95 runs of the same rules with the start shifted forward 30 days at a time.

Worstp10p25Medianp75p90BestLosing starts
-56.5%-32.5%-12.5% 13.4%53.9% 145.5%348.0%36%

Does it survive its own parameters?

The headline above uses one parameter setting. Here is every setting tested: 16 combinations, median 364.7%, best 2644.7%, worst 174.6%. 6 of them beat buy & hold.

Parameter grid

Parabolic SAR run across its own parameter range over the full period. The same rules flip from profit to loss depending only on the numbers you picked — which is why a single headline return is meaningless on its own.

step 0.01step 0.02step 0.03step 0.05
max 0.12645%680%402%866%
max 0.21300%286%319%189%
max 0.31300%286%365%175%
max 0.51300%286%365%175%

Hover a cell for trade count and drawdown. “·” = invalid combination (fast ≥ slow).

Year by year

Year201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return-38%81%202%12%-37%68%13%-8%11%
Max DD51%27%26%39%52%20%41%25%16%
Trades141212151615181311
Recent closed trades 126 closed trades — showing the last 40
EnteredEntry ExitedExitHeld SizeP&L (USDT)Return
2026-09-05 79,700.6 2026-09-11 76,530.45 6 bars 37,712.92 -1,572.41 -4.2%
2026-08-20 69,369.45 2026-09-03 77,301.34 14 bars 33,910.95 +3,801.97 +11.2%
2026-08-07 64,355.77 2026-08-15 63,012.04 8 bars 34,703.44 -792.49 -2.3%
2026-07-06 63,681.84 2026-07-26 64,342.82 20 bars 34,415.7 +287.74 +0.8%
2026-06-13 63,611.79 2026-06-24 62,703.2 11 bars 34,984.29 -568.59 -1.6%
2026-05-28 74,486.53 2026-05-29 73,580.71 1 bars 35,485.87 -501.58 -1.4%
2026-04-24 78,296.61 2026-05-14 79,273.95 20 bars 35,118.54 +367.33 +1.1%
2026-04-08 71,960.18 2026-04-22 76,297.97 14 bars 33,188.25 +1,930.29 +5.8%
2026-03-05 72,703.1 2026-03-24 70,871 19 bars 34,114.37 -926.12 -2.7%
2026-02-10 70,173.07 2026-02-26 67,954.05 16 bars 35,298.89 -1,184.52 -3.4%
2025-12-31 88,529.74 2026-01-20 92,584.67 20 bars 33,820.48 +1,478.41 +4.4%
2025-11-27 90,529.25 2025-12-15 88,128.07 18 bars 34,811.52 -991.04 -2.9%
2025-10-01 114,105.96 2025-10-11 112,718.1 10 bars 35,310.69 -499.17 -1.4%
2025-09-04 111,761.57 2025-09-23 112,594.66 19 bars 35,119.6 +191.1 +0.5%
2025-08-08 117,530.76 2025-08-17 117,321.97 9 bars 35,252.53 -132.93 -0.4%
2025-06-27 107,000.53 2025-07-20 117,781.09 23 bars 32,089.97 +3,162.56 +9.9%
2025-06-10 110,318.15 2025-06-21 103,246.33 11 bars 34,356.6 -2,266.64 -6.6%
2025-05-09 103,313.24 2025-05-27 109,380.06 18 bars 32,515.96 +1,840.64 +5.7%
2025-04-13 85,319.55 2025-05-07 96,785.6 24 bars 28,721.23 +3,794.74 +13.2%
2025-03-22 84,130.83 2025-04-05 83,847.93 14 bars 28,875.83 -154.6 -0.5%
2025-03-04 86,264.27 2025-03-11 78,556.56 7 bars 31,772.51 -2,896.68 -9.1%
2025-02-21 98,354.16 2025-02-25 91,507.1 4 bars 34,218.27 -2,445.76 -7.1%
2025-01-18 104,129.51 2025-01-29 101,284.85 11 bars 35,249.74 -1,031.47 -2.9%
2025-01-08 97,003.08 2025-01-11 94,678.74 3 bars 36,187.42 -937.68 -2.6%
2024-12-16 104,516.22 2024-12-22 97,243.35 6 bars 38,971.75 -2,784.34 -7.1%
2024-12-01 96,456.19 2024-12-08 99,782.07 7 bars 37,748.19 +1,223.56 +3.2%
2024-11-07 75,609.78 2024-11-26 92,963.5 19 bars 30,763.11 +6,985.08 +22.7%
2024-10-15 66,117.04 2024-11-03 69,340.05 19 bars 29,391.92 +1,371.18 +4.7%
2024-10-09 62,191.58 2024-10-12 62,508.72 3 bars 29,301.35 +90.58 +0.3%
2024-09-14 60,528.24 2024-10-02 60,774.52 18 bars 29,241.03 +60.32 +0.2%
2024-08-13 59,376.31 2024-09-04 57,459 22 bars 30,277.25 -1,036.22 -3.4%
2024-07-29 68,284 2024-08-03 61,467.59 5 bars 33,702.17 -3,424.92 -10.2%
2024-07-16 64,756.42 2024-07-27 67,874.05 11 bars 32,218.52 +1,483.65 +4.6%
2024-07-02 62,931.45 2024-07-05 57,021.49 3 bars 35,628.97 -3,410.45 -9.6%
2024-06-06 71,143.55 2024-06-12 67,280.57 6 bars 37,750.07 -2,121.1 -5.6%
2024-05-05 63,923.98 2024-05-25 68,515.72 20 bars 35,290.67 +2,459.4 +7.0%
2024-04-09 71,655.81 2024-04-14 63,892.56 5 bars 39,657.9 -4,367.22 -11.0%
2024-03-26 69,914.94 2024-04-04 65,930.29 9 bars 42,138.91 -2,481.01 -5.9%
2024-02-27 54,503.72 2024-03-17 65,267.99 19 bars 35,259.63 +6,879.28 +19.5%
2024-01-30 43,324.36 2024-02-23 51,262.78 24 bars 29,859.08 +5,400.55 +18.1%

Prices include slippage; size is what was actually committed to that trade including fees.

Assumptions

Period2018-01-01 → 2026-09-23
Parameters{"step":0.02,"max":0.2}
Rolling test365 bars × 95 start dates
Input hashda160abc9caf9512

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